Thursday, January 12, 2012

Market update

GOOG has been in a VST uptrend since I posted. TZOO broke out after my post. I hope you took advantage of my posts to play the names. 

I have charts of SPX, OTC/ NASDAQ/ COMPX, DJI, NDX for you today. We are at/ close to a top rather than a bottom. It would be prudent to stay in cash for the ST (swing traders) or have tight stops if you are long. I have no indication to sell short though. When I mean close to a top, do I say that we will see a big/ small correction? Don't know at this time. We could consolidate/ sideways or see a correction. Either way, since the cycle seems to be topping, follow the above suggestion. Though I have charts of major indices below, since DJI has been leading this cycle I will use that as an example. We could break the trendline upwards, pause and then breakdown or we may not go above the line as you can see we touched the trendline already.





The key point I would like to make is both NASDAQ, SPX are lagging DJI which doesn't bode well for the market in the Intermediate term. When there is greed in the market, the small caps and the NASDAQ always leads. Lack of leadership means caution should be exhibited even though we may still be in an uptrend.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

GOOG intraday

GOOG showing a positive divergence on the hourly with the RSI14. Let RSI cross the 55 level, buy GOOG with a stop at today's low. Bullish play is VST only, ST remains bearish.


Shortsqueeze watchlist

The following names (TZOO, RENN, GMCR)
1, have been down big in the last 52 weeks (like 50 - 70%).
2, are heavily shorted with a short interest of higher than 30%
3, low float (not low low) compared to the stocks in the same space as they are in
4, All of them are posting consolidation in the last few weeks.
5, every trader and their mother are bearish and short on this list.

Look at NFLX for the trading cues. Let the stocks consolidate. Let the price cross (and close) the 50 DMA on a daily basis. Buy a small position with a wide stop of 5 - 10%. Add more if the 10 DMA and 20 DMA cross the 50 DMA. If they break above 50 DMA, they have potential to go crazy higher.

If the consolidation doesn't lead to breakout above the 50 DMA, no trade. No problem but wait for the play. Don't jump ahead of the game. NFLX is the example, others to follow. It may take few days/weeks for this to happen.


I have no positions in any of the above at this time but I will enter should the play come to fruition. I am not impressed with the fundamentals of any of the stocks, it is a pure technical play.

AAPL, MON


Sold short AAPL 425$ weekly calls. AAPL will be fighting the fading momentum and then theta will go against the calls.


Shorted MON, will cover lower. 

Both are short term plays. If things are good, I will close intraday too.