Portfolio performance 2013

Please read Introduction 1st.

For the year 2013, net profit at Silver Ven is 23.5%. I am not impressed at all, considering the shame of getting beaten big by the general market ( SPY up by 31.89%), other peers in 2013 and our own performance from previous years. That goes on to reiterate the fact that past performance is no predictor of the future. Our winners for the year were AAPL, FB, NFLX, TSLA, LNKD, ISRG, RAX, TWTR, Index via SPX while we had small net losses in PCLN, GDX, AMZN, CREE, FSLR. I am only mentioning the top winners and losers, we have a big list out here. Our trading involved much more than the above mentioned tickers. One of the problems why we were not up big like the previous years was that the market swings  have become small and quicker. We had a great beginning with the buy-and-hold mentality till April/ May. Considering that we are positioned as a swing trader to maximize gains both up and down, many of these later swings turned into whipsaws cutting into the gains earned prior.

Few good and clean things that we wish to maintain into 2014:

• Position sizing and risk - We are good at proper risk maintenance and proper position sizing.
• Bias - When the market remains irrational for longer than we think it will be, the good thing about us is to sit out when we are in disbelief. Means we do not take opposite trades based on our beliefs. If we do not have good belief in the market conditions, we sit out but not take the opposite trade.
• Stops - While I agree too many swings can cut into profits when we have stops, we do not mind getting stopped out. Belief is eventually one of those swings will turn into a big one far exceeding the small stop losses.
• DCA - When there is a bad trade, cutting the trade is the best thing. We do not average on the trade digging a bigger ditch.
• Widow makers - Traders have a big list of widow makers like UNG, VXX. We do trade tickers like this but are aimed at very short term trading. Never buy/sell-and hold into these tickers.

I wish all our readers and fellow traders a Happy, Prosperous and a Wealthy New Year 2014. Keep up your good spirit, you will never lose!

Fortunes will be made and lost - AAPL

This is wallstreet. Fortunes are made and lost here in regular and tandem fashion. That is no surprise. We see a dot-boom go bust with high degree of periodicity. AAPL as a stock is up 30% YTD. That is not the full story though.  It was up about 74% about 2 months back. It retraced 25% since it's Sept high of $704. That is still not what bothers me. The velocity with which it is sold incessantly, despite being the global innovative leader in a bunch of leading electronic devices, holding 100s of billion $s of cash in hand, solid reputation at stake is what makes me think deep. Something is wrong behind the curtains. Also, it is easy to justify the high market cap when the company is at its prime, people realize the problems only when the stock goes bust.  While we don't yet know what that 'something' is, our charts show that the ticker is very very disturbed. It is often said that the stock market is often a reflection of behind-the-scenes action, I can't comprehend what I am seeing. Wall street is brutal and doesn't care for reputation, innovation or leadership. 

For comparison, I have summoned the great dot-busts from the 2000 stock bombs. I looked at almost 100 charts of tickers including YHOO, MSFT, AMZN, PCLN (all of which still exist, only with a minuscule of their stock's prime valuation) and then some tickers which don't exist like BCOR, NVTL. I noticed that in today's AAPL chart, the MACD indicator is extremely oversold. A bottom or top in the MACD indicator never ever occurs simultaneously at the same time with the price of a ticker. Usually the MACD indicator tops or bottoms and then days-months later the price bottoms. Sometimes years later, in extreme cases like this. The MACD indicator has gone below - 25 which we rarely see. It often indicates violent plunges are ahead. There may be short killer rallies in between but these kind of stocks with extreme monstrosity are hard to predict and more often than not end up losing most of the market cap. I know, it is hard to imagine AAPL going bust with virtues as underlined above but this is wall street folks. You could create history or you can be history riding AAPL from here. 

I am including charts of BCOR, NVTL, PCLN from the dot bomb era, GOOG and FSLR from 2008 market crash, PCLN and CMG from the current era from the comparison with current AAPL's chart below. BCOR, NVTL went chapter 11 while PCLN recovered. PCLN continues to show the same violence with precision every year in its charts. CMG is the latest example of one high flying stock which has gone bust in recent times.

Bottomline is -  All time top in AAPL is in. The bottom of short term, Intermediate term or long term is not yet seen. Extreme and violent moves on both directions will continue in the months ahead. I am reading several posts of 'V' bottom. Yeah, right! It is not that easy, folks! Bookmark this post and we will meet in 6 months. 

In the charts below, concentrate on MACD extreme reading and what fate followed  for each ticker ahead. 

Current AAPL

BCOR from dot-bomb era

NVTL from dot-bomb era

PCLN from dot-bomb era

PCLN current chart

GOOG from 2008 crash

FSLR current

CMG current

AAPL current