Showing posts with label QQQ. Show all posts
Showing posts with label QQQ. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 1, 2015
Friday, November 13, 2015
Market update
Position update
We sold SPY short at $206.4 on a ST basis (added to the 100k trading portfolio challenge). Stop is at ~ $1.5 (break even) now that the position has returned $1.5 in our favour since started.
Market update
Previous market update here
Been a while since the previous market update but there hasn't been any updates as such.
Current update
ST - Sell/ Short
IT/ LT - Buy
Pundits are blaring now (as usual) that this is a continuation of a bear market started in Aug 2015. While we have many tools to look at that point of view, we are highlighting one of the gauges in the chart below:
Market hasn't entered a correction or was never in a bear market (in the last 15 years or so) when GE (General electric Inc.) hit new highs.
While we are short on our ST positions, we don't see this as a IT/ LT sell (/short) yet. Atleast the evidence doesn't point to that yet.
GLTA!
Thursday, November 12, 2015
Monday, October 12, 2015
Market update
Recently we have launched a $100k trading portfolio. Please click the link, titled "SilverVen's 100k trading portfolio", on the right side of this post. The trades are revealed to the public in real time on twitter or stocktwits ; The spreadsheet in the link will reveal the same, and track the previous trades.
Last trades
Closed SPY from $192 to $199; closed XIV from $24.6 to $27.85
___________
Previous market update here
Current market update
ST - Buy since Oct. 2nd
IT/ LT - Sell
Current market update
ST - Buy since Oct. 2nd
IT/ LT - Sell
The market has been on a ST buy since Oct. 2nd. The market still is on a ST buy. We closed the ST long positions merely to avoid volatility before the FOMC on 10/08. The liquidity (based on our charts) is considerably better compared to June - Sept. We are about almost to get a buy signal on the IT as well.
GLTA!
Sunday, August 23, 2015
What happens next - Part 2
Current market rating here
I am posting 3 scenarios on what to do if you are short, long, neutral right now.
We took 50% off the ST and IT positions on 08/21 at market close, explanation below. I will let the other 50% of the positions stop themselves, higher or lower, when the turn signal is initiated. LT positions will be stopped on a close of > /ES 2035.
Anyway, where does the market go from here. As I posted in my previous post, I have no clue. Up? Down? Sideways for several days? No idea. Everyone out there is throwing darts at the market, one of the darts will hit the bulls eye. My experience tells me that instead of guesstimating what the market does next, it is best to have plans on how to manage the positions.
- Have a plan to do if XYZ happens
- It doesn't matter if that doesn't happen, you still have a plan B if PQR happens
In other words, be flexible in this market. If you are chopped by market whipsaws, that is still ok. Take a walk and come back to trade another time. I do have suggestions on what to do if you are:
- Short right now: If you are short from ~ 100 SPX points above like us, take some off the table. That way, your profits will be ensured. Because what if the markets rally straight up from here? You have profits, so take some off the positions. Then, there are 2 scenarios. Market goes up or down. If market goes down, wait for the turn. Close the positions when the market turns. If the market goes up from here, have a stop at about SPX 2065. You still end up profitable being in short positions on this "mini crash" because you scaled out already.
- Long right now: Depends on what level you were long from. We sure hope that you didn't enter long positions at SPX 2100. If you did, you should have been stopped out before 6% down. If you entered long somewhere around, 2025 - 2050, you still should have been stopped by now. If you didn't close the longs on friday at market close and are expecting a rally next, we cannot help. Because there is no guarantee rally is going to come next. May be it will rally. May be it will not. We don't see the rally yet. Without any buying in the market in the last 3 days, how can you expect the market to rally? There are no indications right now that market will rally. That may change come Monday, but we have to see the evidence.
- No positions right now: This is the best place to be in. :) Cash is King!!! Traders who are in cash are at a huge advantage. Traders who are short right now, have to close their short positions and then take longs - in other words, they have to be ultraflexible about 2 moves; There is a high chance that this group may miss the next up move. If you are in cash now, you are obviusly relaxed and will see the next turn better without getting whipsawed.
Do not try to trade counter trend moves, you will lose the opportunity. We were short on ST, IT, LT positions prior to market open on 08/21. But, we were "expecting" VST counter trend move upwards. We knew for sure that the market did not bottom, hence clearly mentioned this was a VST move. But, the VST move did not materialize and we got stopped at /ES 2005. As a result, we were down 0.6% on the VST move AND we lost the opportunity to profit on the VST short positions from /ES 2021 to 1970. May be VST, but still 50 points is a big move.
Hence, do not try to trade counter trend moves.
Do not guess the up moves.
Be nimble
GLTA!
Saturday, August 22, 2015
What happens next - part 1
Yesterday we tried something foolish , more on that foolishness in the next blog post. But, let's try to understand where we stand in this market "crash" and what is next.
Ivanoff suggests this is a market bottom like Oct. 2014. Technical trader says puts haven't been this high since March 2007, hence this is THE BOTTOM. Is it? May be both are right. What if they aren't right? Are we trying to playing a guessing game on who is right or wrong? Are we gambling with our money on guessing?
I am going to post tomorrow what our game plan is. Hence, watch out!
1st let's look the current situation from my perspective. Last market update was this. Our market guage suggested a decline. We got a 3% decline. So, what is the next scenario? Chart below.
1) Market bottom like Ivanoff suggests and bear crushing rally!
2) What if market declines further for 1-2 days and then rally for few days and further decline?
3) Who knows what happens? And why exactly are we trying to guess!
This post is about perspective, so let's just do that. Chart below.
More puts have been bought in several instances before. And does more puts bought = harder the market crash? I don't think there is a linear relationship between extent of market decline vs puts. It is not wise to guess based on "VIX hasn't risen more ever" or "puts are high" this time.
So, what do we do? That is for tomorrow. Thanks...........
Friday, August 21, 2015
Market update
Previous update here
We had to post the previous update to guide ST longs on when to close the position and what levels are important. The /ES futures market was down 15 handles, hence defining levels was important. As posted yesterday, market closed below /ES 2060 and /ES 2035 as well.
ST - changed from buy to sell
IT - had been a sell signal since July 26
LT - changed to sell from buy
Our options machine is in the "sell" zone, so exercise caution. Chart below. Could this sell move be a headfake? Well, may be, but let the market tell us that point. We are confident to read the charts when that happens.
I am a contrarian but I do follow the charts to identify the trend. I do not play counter trend moves though. Being a contrarian and a counter trend trader are quite different.
We will post an update when the ST trend changes.
GLTA!
Wednesday, August 19, 2015
Market update
Previous market update here
Before the market update, based on the question from a reader, we have a post for crude oil. Chart below.
If you already are short, right now it is hold. Close the short position on a close above /CL = $43.
If you have no position, then open a long position when the /CL bounces in the rectangle.
What instrument do you use to trade crude oil? ETFs are the way to go. Unfortunately, there is no "best" ETF as a direct play to crude oil. See chart below, while crude oil is down 54% YoY, other ETFs are down much more. USO is an ETF, OIL is an ETN; UCO and UWTI are leveraged plays for /CL. The best of the worst is USO though.
Now, let us discuss the market update. We flipped the sell to a buy on ST and the market went down 0.8% on the reading. Yesterday was a FOMC day. Nothing significant comes out of FOMC on most days, except once in a while. Yet the market swings a lot. That is never our problem, anyways. We have our own instruments, our own indicators to tackle all that noise.
No change in market update, we have a 2% stop on the ST.
GLTA!
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Monday, August 17, 2015
Market update
Previous market update here
First up, we have a buy recommendation for you. Buy Dominion resources with a 5% stop, chart below
Market update
Previous market update here
No change in the market update as of now. We had a ST sell from 26th July @ SPX 2079.xx
I will post a change in signal as soon as we see it. But, let me post a warning to the bears. This is good for the shorts to close the position.
The circled turn marks the bottom of the market whereas the arrow confirms the turn. This indicator serves as a warning prior to the turn. But, the signal change is not there yet!
GLTA!
Friday, August 7, 2015
Market update
Previous market update here
We do not have a change in the market update as of now
VST/ ST - Sell
IT - Sell
LT - Buy
We mentioned that we will take a short position should the market close below SPX 2095. The index did close below 2095 on 08/04 and we did open a short position. However, we closed the position the next day as the market closed above it.
In short, we do not hold a ST position now. The above update holds good until the next signal comes in. But, we did enter the warning (for the bears) territory already (see chart below). The confirmation would be a turn below the blue line that the turn (to buy) is in place. As long as the indicator is above the blue line, then the bears don't need to worry. I don't rue a missed chance to be short now, sometimes it happens. This stance is for the ST position only. We do hold a IT short position though.
If I were holding short positions now, I would not close the position. Coz we only gained like ~ 1% + with this sell signal , but I would have stops above SPX 2105.
We will keep you posted, GLTA!
Tuesday, August 4, 2015
Market update
Previous market update here
No change in the current market update from the previous one, but we do have a warning (chart below). To be honest, there are several warnings in all time frames, some of the warnings being extreme. But, this market wouldn't budge down. It continues to amaze us.
We don't hold any ST positions as the market did not close below SPX 2095. One of the good things for me personally was that I did not trade much from Dec. 2014 - June 2015 for ~ 6 months, luckily. The last 1 month has been super whipsawy, hence I can understand how it must have felt to have traded during that period. I did not trade, but our staff have traded and I easily understand them.
Usually we do not do much political/ fundamental commentary 'coz:
1) Trading is not about talking, it is an art in itself which is based 70% on a) putting the right risk size on the table and b) being flexible to close positions
2) If we start to talk, then we will have to dish out some criticism on someone out there - which is not our wont.
Out there, I am reading reviews suggesting that the "fear seen among investors now is same as the fear at the 2009 market lows" Oh, really?
How do you measure fear in the markets? Objectively or subjectively?
If you poll 100 people on fear about markets, that is subjective. If you look at the data from the market exchanges and derive fear that is objective.
If investors are fearful of the markets, they should either buy puts or get out of the market, right? We simply don't see any extreme levels of "fear" among investors. If you say there is extreme fear among market participants only 2% off the all time highs, you must be kidding!
Anyway, we do not subscribe to the notion that we are seeing extreme fear currently. Atleast, it is not simply seen in the data. In fact, it is opposite of what is being reported in the interweb.
Chart below
This is only a warning that top is probably in (or close) for this ST frame. This is not a signal, however. Especially in this market where every indicator and signal has been mercilessly trashed.
It still pays to watch for the warnings, as it allows us to be prepared of the risk that is in the markets out there. Nothing more, nothing less.....
GLTA!
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
Market update
Previous market update here
VST - Buy
ST - Sell
IT - Sell
LT - Buy
ST is on the border of sell & buy. No change yet! Our ST positions were stopped at 2% up from where we opened the position...phew! Should the market drop below SPX 2095, we will open the short sell market ST position again. Should the market continue upward, we will take the signal.
The problem is FOMC day. Things are not straight both before & after FOMC day. Never mind as we can wait.....
market update
Previous market update here
We got a warning sign yesterday from our options tool, hardly 2 days into this "buy" signal. But, no sign of VST/ ST signal change yet. So, we remain put. Especially considering it is a FOMC day. We reiterate again that we don't trade around FOMC. We do have 2% and 5% stops for ST and IT frames.
I am all ears on what the Fed chief will say about our economy. It is just that we don't trade what they say.....GLTA!
Sunday, July 26, 2015
Market update
Previous market update here
ST - changed to sell from buy as of close on 07/24
IT - changed to sell from buy as of close on 07/24
LT - buy
ST position: In our previous market update, we posted that we are taking 50% of our position off at 2.5% profit and 25% stopped at 2100. There are times when scaling off seems dumb, for example when the swing trade results in 10% or so. But, that's the reason why we have some left on the table. If the market conntinues in the same direction of our trade, so be it, we will have our chips there. Also, we were not scaling off for no reason. We had this warning sign (chart below) on 07/21.
IT: IT changed to sell from buy. Previous signal was on 07/17 at SPX 2126. Which is a ~ 2.2% loss of our position. IT loss eats away our ST profits. Ah, humbug!
Anyway, good luck to all!
Tuesday, July 21, 2015
Market update
Previous market update here
ST - Buy
IT - Buy
LT - Buy
All my positions are on buy signal, no change in trend yet, though I am seeing warning signals on the ST and LT. I am taking off 50% off of my ST position (here)with a 2.5% profit in ticker SPY, as 2.5% in ~ 10 days is kind of nice. Stop for 25% of this position is at SPX 2100 - to ensure the profits don't slip away. The other 25% will be flipped when the sell short signal comes on. This small blogpost sums up my strategy = scale out of profitable positions = always win!
GLTA!
Saturday, July 18, 2015
Market update
Previous update here
ST - Buy
IT - changed to Buy
LT - Buy
As we noted many times in the past on this blog, we simply hate IT trading. Especially this market since the bull market began in 2009. This market swings almost every month up and down. That is ideal for ST trading. But, at the same time, not so good for IT trading. LT investing on the other hand is good as the trend has been up except in 2011. IT trading was excellent prior to 2006.
Anyways, we were down 2.5% on the previous IT trade. We have a stop of 5% should the stop hit our trade before the signal comes. Which means our portfolio is okay getting a hit of 5% on this trade. We wouldn't say "fine" but just "okay". If not for these IT chops, our portfolio would be in much better shape.
Good luck next week!
Thursday, July 16, 2015
Q & A
Current market update here
Our market updates are very simple. We post buy/ sell signals when we see change in the market direction. There is no ambiguity, there are no ifs and buts. However, trading is a different theme. It involves diffferent strategies. Hence, there are bound to be many questions to our stakeholders and to the readers of this blog. We will try to answer some of those questions sent to us below but please read here if possible:
1) Why don't you post VST updates regularly?
ST updates are based on daily charts - posted at the end of the day or beginning of next trading day.
IT updates are based on weekly charts - posted at the end of the week
LT/ VLT updates are based on monthly charts - posted at the end of the month/ quarter/ year etc
But, VST updates are based on change in the direction on an hourly basis. During the day, we are busy with trading. We take time to continue our work. Seldom do we have time to post VST updates. If this were a fee based subscription service, then yes, we would post VST updates.
2) How much % do you collect in a swing trade?
It depends on the swing. There is no fixed %. During the last sell signal (please click on the last 3 blogposts to review) that was issued on June 3rd, SPX was 2114. we clearly marked the supports for SPX in my previous posts. Based on the supports, we closed 25% of the position on June 15th at SPX 2075, 25% of the position on June 29th at SPX 2070, 25% of the position on July 7th at 2060 and final close of the remaining 25% of the position on July 10th at SPX 2075 when the signal flipped to buy.
We believe in scaling out of positions, if you understood our trading methodology. We collected 2% during that swing trade.
3) So, your portfolio performance is?
YTD, we are up by 11% in our accounts. IT/ LT positions did not collect much. Most of the profits are due to ST trades, some due to VST trades. We couldn't post regular updates during the early part of the year but we had enough staff to continue trading/ investing.
Past years portfolio performance here
4) During June 2015, the market was swinging between SPX 2010 to SPX 2050. You posted sell signal only but you could have played the upmoves as well.
Our trading is based on certain indicators and guages, 90% of them technical. Our indicators were heavily leaned towards a sell even though in hindsight we can call the market's direction during the last 45 days as "chop" or "box". Using our scaling out methodology, however, we were able to take advantage of the chops and posted good gains. Hence, no regrets about not playing the upmoves inside the box.
5) What position size do you use?
We have answered this question elsewhere on this blog.
Ideally, it is suggested that we should invest only 5% of the capital in one ticker (eg: AAPL or NFLX). So, for every $ 100,000 invested, the position size in one ticker should never be more than $5,000.
However, we trade individual stocks very few times. Most of our concentration is on market ETFs like SPY, QQQ, DIA. Hence, we use 75% of the allotted capital to SPY. The remaining 25% is either used as standby capital or sometimes traded on individual tickers with capital control.
We have 30% of our capital in LT positions.
We have 20% of our capital in IT positions.
We have 40% of our capital in ST positions, and 10% in VST positions.
6) For individual investors who have $ 5,000 - 10,000 as capital, what do you suggest?
With only $ 5,000 to invest, how can you manage a single ticker and still be profitable. I would say you are better off trading ETFs on a ST basis but be very nimble.
7) What if your signal is wrong?
This is a very good question. We humbly accept that there are no guarantees in this market. We believe that our signals are mostly correct. But, if we are wrong, then we do have stops in place at 2% for the ST signal and 5% for the IT signal.
8) Do you change strategies during earnings season?
Earnings are reported 4 times a year for all US exchange listed companies. As you might already know, predicting the direction of the ticker based on earnings is a very very risky business. Hence, we would not rather trade the earnings of individual tickers. If we must not trade during earnings, we should be in and out of the position during earnings which does not seem ideal for trading.
To answer your question, we do not change strategy during earnings.
Hence, we feel that it is prudent to invest on ETFs like SPY rather than be in and out of individual tickers during earnings, and other events.
If you have more questions, feel free to send them to me. GLTA!
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
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