Closing GDX

We are closing GDX for a loss, open position here

$100k SilverVen's portfolio updated

Position update

Open position here

 

We are closing AAPL and SPY longs in premarket. Both the positions updated in the

$100k Silver Ven trading portfolio

 

Closing SPY @ 209.9

AAPL @ 119.3

 

We are leaving GDX long position open

 

Regarding closing AAPL and SPY: It doesn't mean that AAPL and SPY are going to go lower from here or crash. It only means we are bringing the money home.

 

What if you are unable to close in premarket?

We suggest to close at market open as you will still be in profits. May be higher or lower?

 

GLTA!

AAPL SPY GDX

Long AAPL @ $118.

Long SPY @ $207.97

Long GDX @ $14.6

Silver Ven's $100k portfolio updated

Position update

Closing GDX @ $12.95

Open position here

$100K Portfolio updated

Position update

Sell short GDX @ $13.15

Updated the trading portfolio....

Market update

Previous market update here 

Was that update like 3 hours back? :) That is how much this market allowed me to sleep. :( Sometimes (FOMC/ OPEX), the market doesn't allow us to sleep. We are being used to working hard. We will catch up during the weekend, not to worry. Since I am sleepless anyway, I will present few interesting charts below.

Based on the market close, we will post updates.

Chart below: Since the cash markets are closed till 930 am EST, we will talk using the futures charts. A close of /ES (daily chart) below 2060 triggers the ST sell signal. A close above /ES 2060 is hold. A close above /ES 2072 reiterates a buy. 

Next lower level to watch for /ES is 2035. A close below that will trigger a LT sell. Clear? Any questions please raise your hand. 

Next up is FB - chart below. Yesterday's wild swings in the market did not influence this ticker a bit. FB held its nerve and closed +ve. Buy with a stop below the orange rectangle. A close below that rectangle will trigger a short position.

Next is Gold. My neighbor told me yesterday that Gold's bear market ended and it will never go below $1000. Well, there are no fixed claims in stock markets. We are very flexible to buy or sell. No fixed opinions here. 

Chart below: Gold is up against some strong IT resistance. We reckon Gold is a sell here. The recent uptrend should end here. A close above that line is a IT buy with a stop 1% below that line. In simple terms, a daily close above ~ 1142 is a IT buy with a stop at ~ $1130. Got it?

We have seen some positives yesterday despite the sell off in the markets. LQD closed positive. Let us see how it will follow through. LQD has been a sell for more than 6 months but let us see if this ticker will turn a corner. No recommendation but thought this was interesting. Chart below.

We have a recommendation for you. This ticker is low volume, so you got to have a 10% stop. And please don't get heavy on this name as I said this is (relatively) new ticker to the market. Buy EROS with a stop @ ~ $35.

GLTA!

Gold update

Previous update here

 

VST/ ST/ IT - Bullish (Daily charts turned bullish on Friday)

LT - Weekly charts still bearish...

VLT - Bearish

 

 

Last many weeks gold has been chopping both bulls and bears.....

Gold update

Last buy was at 1285$, check this update for previous comparison . We have been tracking that chart for several weeks now. I have had a Intermediate target of ~ 1550$ based on that chart and my signals. This week we had a turn on our IT and LT frames. I have a sell signal on daily and weekly time frames right now on Gold from a buy previously.

 

 

The best case for a bull right now is that we could be a in a chop. Unfortunately, I will take my signals. My stop is ~ $1,350. GDX is in a much worse position, BTW, obviously due to the recently sell off in the equities. 

 

All timesframes - Sell

 

 



Market update

Previous update here .

VST - turned bearish this hour

ST - Still bullish, losing steam

IT - Bearish

LT - Bearish

VLT - Bullish

 

GDX, GLD, /GC

 

VST, ST - Bearish

IT - Bullish but on edge

LT - Bullish (next update will be at end of week, last LT buy was at 1285 - /GC with a 3% stop)

VLT - Bearish

 

Questions and answers

I have had 2 questions from my stakeholders, very important ones: One was about GDX and another about yesterday morning's market update.

1, On Wednesday, my analysis indicated a buy signal for the markets. Yes, it did - based on the 4 hrly charts and the daily charts. My update also indicated a hourly sell signal. Absolutely contradictory. I manage 3 portfolios. One for the long term, one for the swing trading, and another for frequent trading. I understand your question, as soon as you read this - not everybody has 3 types of portfolios in their account, especially the small trader.  Unfortunately, swing trading (on daily charts) has not been very good in this "bull market". I could not beat the SPX last year, only because my swing trading portfolio underperformed. I am not alone in this regard. If you look at any hedge fund, they all say it is a tough market environment to invest. One day the market is up 2%, the next day down 3%, it goes on and on. Is the market moving so much in the weekly horizon? Not so much!!! But, for those of us who are trading the daily charts, it has been tough. Really tough. On the other hand, trading (on hourly charts) has been excellent, especially with these wild swings. The Intermediate and long term trading (weekly and monthly charts) has been very good as well. Unfortunately, that has been the name of the game. Anyway, right now as of market close yesterday, all timeframes except the VLT are on a sell.

2. Someone asked me few weeks ago if GDX is better than GLD or viceversa. At the beginning of this year, I forecasted that both will outperform the market. And yes, they did (chart below). I have also noted that GDX will outperform GLD. Unfortunately, that has not been the case even while GDX has significantly been up for the year. The main reason being GDX is a basket of Gold mining stocks. Obviously, the stocks trade along with the general market trend. If market conditions are unfavorable to be bullish, and Gold charts are bullish, I would go with GLD or /GC (future traders). Not with GDX.

 

 With the market being brutal/ choppy, if you maintain some rules on a strict basis, you should still come out with gains from time to time.  Good luck again!

Market update

Market update based on /ES & SPX

 

VST - Sell (based on current hourly chart)

ST - Buy (as of close yesterday)

IT - Buy (as of close yesterday)

LT - Sell

VLT - Buy

 

 

VST = hourly; ST = 4 hrly; IT = Daily; LT = Weekly; VLT = Monthly

These are my definitions, timeframes depends on volatility

 

Previous Gold update here . We are still nicely following the same trend, so I will post updates when trends change.

 

p.s: The earnings season is upon us. I would avoid earnings plays on individual stocks. I am not an earnings technician, I don't have the stomach for those gyrations. This is a nice time to trade the indices though, very manageable! Good luck!

 



Gold update

Gold is beautifully following in the footsteps of the chart I posted few weeks back. If you wish to read my comparison chart again, click here . Right now where we stand, Gold should be an excellent buy. This chance to buy will last this week and the next. Prices will absolutely take off on the upside from the week later. If you buy Gold at these levels, have a stop 3% below. Just in case!

Gold update

If you remember correctly, I predicted at the start of the year that Gold will fly into the 1500s before retreating to the bearish market. Many times in the past few months did Gold seemed that it would start a new bullish trend, but alas it keeps adjusting itself to the same area.

I was studying some past charts on yellow metal. I noticed something similar to the ongoing chart, albeit on a different time frame, you will see. During the techboom era, you can see that Gold formed a nice rounded bottom before zooming up. The price was tagging the (monthly) EMA 12 with a rounded bottom all along before spiking sharply higher into the next bull run.

Look the weekly chart below: 

I propose that the EMA 12 tagging will go on for the next few weeks. The breakout could be confirmed when the price crosses $1350, and then to ~ $1550. I will be happy to sit out this churn and chop before that.A double bottoms is in place. If you take a position now (aggressive investor!), have your stop below that W low.

JMHO

Sincerely!

Gold preview

       Looking for a test of the blue line in the next 4 - 5 months........

ST - Bullish

IT - Bullish

LT - Bearish

Portfolio performance 2013

Please read Introduction 1st.

For the year 2013, net profit at Silver Ven is 23.5%. I am not impressed at all, considering the shame of getting beaten big by the general market ( SPY up by 31.89%), other peers in 2013 and our own performance from previous years. That goes on to reiterate the fact that past performance is no predictor of the future. Our winners for the year were AAPL, FB, NFLX, TSLA, LNKD, ISRG, RAX, TWTR, Index via SPX while we had small net losses in PCLN, GDX, AMZN, CREE, FSLR. I am only mentioning the top winners and losers, we have a big list out here. Our trading involved much more than the above mentioned tickers. One of the problems why we were not up big like the previous years was that the market swings  have become small and quicker. We had a great beginning with the buy-and-hold mentality till April/ May. Considering that we are positioned as a swing trader to maximize gains both up and down, many of these later swings turned into whipsaws cutting into the gains earned prior.

Few good and clean things that we wish to maintain into 2014:

• Position sizing and risk - We are good at proper risk maintenance and proper position sizing.
• Bias - When the market remains irrational for longer than we think it will be, the good thing about us is to sit out when we are in disbelief. Means we do not take opposite trades based on our beliefs. If we do not have good belief in the market conditions, we sit out but not take the opposite trade.
• Stops - While I agree too many swings can cut into profits when we have stops, we do not mind getting stopped out. Belief is eventually one of those swings will turn into a big one far exceeding the small stop losses.
• DCA - When there is a bad trade, cutting the trade is the best thing. We do not average on the trade digging a bigger ditch.
• Widow makers - Traders have a big list of widow makers like UNG, VXX. We do trade tickers like this but are aimed at very short term trading. Never buy/sell-and hold into these tickers.

I wish all our readers and fellow traders a Happy, Prosperous and a Wealthy New Year 2014. Keep up your good spirit, you will never lose!

GDX

Bought GDX, SINA - Both intermediate term positions.

SINA - Stop below 80$,
GDX - 1/2 position, will add if stock sees 20.0 - 20.5

The most hated trade in the last one year...

What is the most hated trade in the last one year? I am buying it if the ticker crosses 50 day moving average, for at least a 30% upside in the next few months.  DUST should be below $50 very soon. This is an "Intermediate term" trade. Not long term, long term is still down. Chart below: 

Gold miners

I short Gold miners via being long DUST. DUST is 3x bearish Gold miners ETF. I bought DUST at $27.90 and I am holding it as of now at 35.51$. I monitor my DUST position using GDX charts. I would be out of DUST on the break of my 17 EMA (indicated by "A" on the chart). I would consider buying a small amount of GDX on the 1st trendline break, for trading (short term). I would really consider investing (means holding in Intermediate/ long term) only on a trendline break above the 3rd trendline. Till these breaks happen, hold the shorts on GDX.

Click on the chart for bigger view

All 3x instruments should be considered trading tools only, 3x instruments should never be considered "hold" instruments or investing instruments. It is also prudent to have a stop/ stop loss on all such instruments. Good luck to you!

Buy list

PAYX above 32.39$, UNP on a daily close above 116.2$, buy HFC here, buy HSY here; Use 7% or appropriate stops as mandatory.

GDX and GLD are on the buy as well.