What is holding this market down?

For the last several weeks, SPX has been hitting a thick wall of resistance and dropping down. Some think it is the 200 DMA, some think it is 61.8 number. SPX traded above, below, at the 200 DMA several times this week. There is significant resistance that is holding the market down though. I don't think this low volume push will cause the market to go higher. "Market higher" is the keyword and I expect the market to trade higher 3 months, 6 months from now. The 50 week MA is at 1267 and that is what is pushing the market down. For /ES, the resistance stands at 1264. 

I expect we will go lower, gain some momentum and then push higher in the new year. 

Emini intraday update

My VST signal is still on a buy. I am still partly long, after closing 60% of the SPY position. When and if the trailing stop 2% hits, I will still be profitable on that position taking my entry into consideration.

At this hour, I wanted to post an intraday Emini futures update. There is a negative divergence of the price with the RSI (14) on the /ES hourly. I noticed this divergence early on, but the divergence is not complete until the hourly bar is complete. I am posting this now as we are very close to finishing the hour. What this means is we may have reached a VVST short term top. After consolidation, we may go up or down. My signal will determine my next entry. If VST signal continues to be on buy, my current position should be good. If VST signal is sell, I will open a short sell VST SPY position. I will post it on my trading blog. The divergence on the chart below is valid as long as the trendlines hold.

Euro update - Swing sell

Euro is out of the trendline that held it for the last few months. The implications of this trendline breakout are very negative. It means that the downward spiral from here will accelerate. Sell all rallies, same with AMZN (check my weekend post for the chart).

I also got a swing sell for the market. You can use any price appreciation today to sell SPY short with a 5% stop from here. I suggest you do that after the FOMC meeting update. I know we are not expecting any QE but who take risk even on a 1% chance? If FOMC statement is neutral, there will be a dip followed by a rally. I expect today to close in positive. Either way you can use any strength to sell. I don't think 0.5% on a ST signal matters, safety first!

Not so FAST!

 It has been a while since I posted individual chart names. I found some good ones to post today. This should kick off the week for you. I have no idea of the fundamentals of these companies, that is your homework before trading/ investing in them. I will take a look at the sector, analyst estimates, 1 year EPS performance, trading volume before trading. I cannot guarantee I will trade all these charts, these are eye candies. If things line up well, I may trade them. I will definitely post it on Stock fund blog. 

I start with Fastenal Inc. today. Use the trendline on FAST to buy the dip with a 5% stop.

Next is symantec. SYMC has possibly double bottomed, buy it right here with a stop below the lateral trendline. Go short below it.

Below is the HOLX daily chart. Enter the position on a breakout, up or down.

Adobe recently satisfied Steve Jobs' ghost by killing mobile flash. Check ADBE chart. ADBE has been trending up after a good consolidation. Buy on a dip with a 5% stop.

We return to our good old friend, AMZN. AMZN is at the lower trendline of the megaphone pattern. I have a bad view of the fundamentals this company has. Yeah, traffic is growing and the site provides good stuff to buy. So, what? It earns 10 cents. With cash in balance and everything, if Wall Street used good criteria for buying stocks, then this should be below 50$. 

 Sell short on a trendline break but notice long term trendline support. If it breaks below that support, it should go down faster than NFLX.

Mattel Co. has been on the uptrend. With this being the holiday season, I am bullish on the name. The chart supports the theory as well. Buy 1/2 now, and buy on a trendline touch. Sell 3% below the trendline.

Sell BMC with a stop above the channel breakout. Buy if it breaks out of the channel.

BroadCom is bearish for some reason. To be honest, the tech sector is not leading this market. That is definitely not a good sign for the market. 

Sell BRCM below the lateral trendline with a 5% stop. I see a H & S on the chart, do you? If the H & S is real, then we should see BRCM test the 2009 lows.

I am bullish on CSCO. CSCO has double bottomed over the long term. Buy with a 5% stop but if it breaks below the double bottom, sell short.

I am bullish on ESRX but buy the breakout. Wait, have patience!

Here comes KLAC with a beautiful chart. Buy with a 7% stop.

I like NVDA here. Buy with a 7% stop. 

I will visit these names after 4 weeks and we will assess our performance of this basket.