Eur/ USD

Eur/ USD posted a price-RSI divergence on the daily chart. I view this development as bullish for the currency in the Intermediate term. Further, there is a strong support below the 1.2286 till 1.18. Resistances to clear are 1.2494 and 1.2622. 

If Eur/ USD can post a rally for few days, that should calm the markets down and we could see an short term bottom on the equity markets as well. Take into consideration that Eur/USD has an inverse correlation with the equity markets usually.

Market update

We are seeing price-RSI positive divergence on the daily SPX chart. For this divergence to convert to a market rally, the divergence must hold. Which means RSI should not post a lower low than the previous low marked on 05/18. If we see a bottom on RSI here, which is likely, the market has bottomed for the short term. Previous price low was 1291, so clearing 1291 higher would mean a good rally. There are 2 approaches: 1, Buy here or lower - with a stop at 1268. With this approach, you could lose if the lower low comes at 1200 (example). 2, Buy on a confirmation of the next rally with $SPX clearing 1292. Either way, stops and risk management is important.

Giving confidence to this approach is the support of the trendline from the 2011 top.

Walmart post-earnings chart

I posted this 4 weeks back on "mexican bribes" plunge for WMT: My WMT buy Where does WMT stand now? Walmart is ~ 5% higher.

Walmart Inc. smashed earnings estimates today and pushes higher today by 4.71% as of now. Sure, the stock went lower and we had almost a month of consolidation before the push here. We may have another round of higher lows before we go higher. But, the way these big caps are breaking out (MSFT? AAPL?), I don't see any bear market at this levels like many on the blogosphere are prognosticating. We had a good correction for the last 5 weeks or so on the general market. My levels to watch for support are 1305, 1270/ 1280.

I am buying the market here with my stop at 1250. This is for Intermediate term - next 4 - 6 months. In short, the bull market is still alive!

Market update

My stance on the markets:

US markets (DJI/ SPX/ COMPX) - Bullish with a bit of caution
Commodities (/CL, /GC, /SI) - Bearish until turn up again

Basis of the above stance is short term using daily charts.