Portfolio performance 2012

Before proceeding further, I recommend you to read the Introduction for my trading activity.

For the calendar year 2012, net gain at Silver Ven Capital was 80% after commisions and other expenses. My 2011 performance was posted here (click link). Volatility was at low levels through 2012 though there were whipsaws all along. Trading was overall good in 2012, we continue to make very good progress. One of the biggest losses for me came from the plunge of KCG. I had to close KCG shares at a loss of 60% on overnight gap down. The good thing about this trade was I had correct position sizing, as a result my account had no significant impact. I rue such losses though, but we cannot expect such events. Hence, I always stress on correct position sizing for the account.

A, One of the first goals of 2012 was to reduce commisions on trading. Commisions for 2012 were 15% lower than 2011. I had a goal of cutting these expenses by 50% which I could not achieve. I plan to reduce the expenses more than 2012.

B, Another goal for this blog is to post my trades in a journal format for everyone to format. I plan to start posting my trades in real time on this blog in a spreadsheet within the next few days. Keep glued to this space.

I wish all readers a very Happy New Year 2013 and continued success!

ISRG update

Posted this on 12/20th . No change in stance, risk is to the downside. Holding short right now with stops. Current chart below on a weekly period, hence patience is required.

Gold miners

I short Gold miners via being long DUST. DUST is 3x bearish Gold miners ETF. I bought DUST at $27.90 and I am holding it as of now at 35.51$. I monitor my DUST position using GDX charts. I would be out of DUST on the break of my 17 EMA (indicated by "A" on the chart). I would consider buying a small amount of GDX on the 1st trendline break, for trading (short term). I would really consider investing (means holding in Intermediate/ long term) only on a trendline break above the 3rd trendline. Till these breaks happen, hold the shorts on GDX.

Click on the chart for bigger view

All 3x instruments should be considered trading tools only, 3x instruments should never be considered "hold" instruments or investing instruments. It is also prudent to have a stop/ stop loss on all such instruments. Good luck to you!

Line in sand

Lol, I was typing this message with "lines in sand" chart but the futures puked down to /ES 1392. Well, currently /ES stands at 1418. Remember the flash crash in 2010? The lowest level on that day will be tested later. In other words, sell the bounce in the short term. No TA here, simple common sense. Now that you know we will visit 1392 again, get ready for it. 1417 is the current support level but that will be broken eventually in the coming days. I am looking at the hourly chart here but closing price on the hrly is important as well.

Tomorrow is OPEX, so if I was short I would ring the register at least on partial positions because OPEX days harass both bulls and bears equally.

These types of "crashes" also teach us not to be short options, though they may be fat tail risk events. Accounts will be wiped out in an instance.