Gold update

If you remember correctly, I predicted at the start of the year that Gold will fly into the 1500s before retreating to the bearish market. Many times in the past few months did Gold seemed that it would start a new bullish trend, but alas it keeps adjusting itself to the same area.

I was studying some past charts on yellow metal. I noticed something similar to the ongoing chart, albeit on a different time frame, you will see. During the techboom era, you can see that Gold formed a nice rounded bottom before zooming up. The price was tagging the (monthly) EMA 12 with a rounded bottom all along before spiking sharply higher into the next bull run.

Look the weekly chart below: 

I propose that the EMA 12 tagging will go on for the next few weeks. The breakout could be confirmed when the price crosses $1350, and then to ~ $1550. I will be happy to sit out this churn and chop before that.A double bottoms is in place. If you take a position now (aggressive investor!), have your stop below that W low.

JMHO

Sincerely!

Market update

ST - Sell

IT - Sell

LT - Buy

 

While the decline this month has been steep, market held to the support (15675) last week. We could see a rally VST next week. I would not be a buyer of the rally till that ~ $DJI 16100 level (which is 61.8% of the decline from the top) is cleared. The 15675 level (= ~ SPX 1772) may be used as support/ resistance with stops by swing traders. I reckon swing traders dont need to trade/ open new positions between 15675 and 16100.  Hold on to your trades between that level. While traders can use the same range to buy the low and sell the high of this range. 

 

Wih such a clean support/ resistance levels, what is the need for indicators?

Gold preview

       Looking for a test of the blue line in the next 4 - 5 months........

ST - Bullish

IT - Bullish

LT - Bearish

Portfolio performance 2013

Please read Introduction 1st.

For the year 2013, net profit at Silver Ven is 23.5%. I am not impressed at all, considering the shame of getting beaten big by the general market ( SPY up by 31.89%), other peers in 2013 and our own performance from previous years. That goes on to reiterate the fact that past performance is no predictor of the future. Our winners for the year were AAPL, FB, NFLX, TSLA, LNKD, ISRG, RAX, TWTR, Index via SPX while we had small net losses in PCLN, GDX, AMZN, CREE, FSLR. I am only mentioning the top winners and losers, we have a big list out here. Our trading involved much more than the above mentioned tickers. One of the problems why we were not up big like the previous years was that the market swings  have become small and quicker. We had a great beginning with the buy-and-hold mentality till April/ May. Considering that we are positioned as a swing trader to maximize gains both up and down, many of these later swings turned into whipsaws cutting into the gains earned prior.

Few good and clean things that we wish to maintain into 2014:

• Position sizing and risk - We are good at proper risk maintenance and proper position sizing.
• Bias - When the market remains irrational for longer than we think it will be, the good thing about us is to sit out when we are in disbelief. Means we do not take opposite trades based on our beliefs. If we do not have good belief in the market conditions, we sit out but not take the opposite trade.
• Stops - While I agree too many swings can cut into profits when we have stops, we do not mind getting stopped out. Belief is eventually one of those swings will turn into a big one far exceeding the small stop losses.
• DCA - When there is a bad trade, cutting the trade is the best thing. We do not average on the trade digging a bigger ditch.
• Widow makers - Traders have a big list of widow makers like UNG, VXX. We do trade tickers like this but are aimed at very short term trading. Never buy/sell-and hold into these tickers.

I wish all our readers and fellow traders a Happy, Prosperous and a Wealthy New Year 2014. Keep up your good spirit, you will never lose!