Monday, October 26, 2015

Market update

Previous market update here

We will not take any ST positions before FOMC meeting announcement on 10/28 - may be we will stay in cash 1 - 2 days later as well. 

The market exceeded the bullish expectations we had at this time . This was at a time when everyone and their mother including, were bearish and short the market. Everybody was clamoring for providing a good bearish number, most of them around SPX 1500 - 1600. So, where are these bearish pundits now after that breath taking rally in the last 2 - 3 weeks? Are they still short? ;) 

Many pundits are talking about this being the market top for the IT frame - we are trend followers, so we don't see any sell signal at this time. We will post when there is change in the update. 

Let's be honest, we were also not expecting this huge rally from /ES 1950. But, our stance is different = We do not have predictions usually, the above one is a rare instance. Hence, we are not shocked about this rally.  Usually we check our charts and take bullish/ bearish positions with an objective of scaling out in profit.  

Some of the positions taken previously (please updated "SilverVen's 100k portfolio for details):

Short $AAPL @ 110.22 - stopped out 2%
Short $SPY @ 200.3 - stopped out 2%
Long $TSLA @ 229.3 - Stopped out 2%

= Currently no positions

The 100k portfolio reflects all the above ST trades - does n't include the IT/ LT positions.

Current market update

ST - Buy
LT/ IT - Buy

We were stopped out of LT/ IT short $SPY positions in our fund @ /ES 2035 as mentioned in our blogspot several times, the last time being here . Even now our line of sand for IT/ LT positions is /ES 2035.

In IT/ LT positions for our fund, we flipped from sell to buy $SPY. 

Our indicator remained bullish throughout, from ~ SPX 1950 or so - please see chart below:

The blue arrow is where we took a ST short position previous week = false signal

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