Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Market update

Previous update here .
VST - turned bearish this hour
ST - Still bullish, losing steam
IT - Bearish
LT - Bearish
VLT - Bullish
 
GDX, GLD, /GC
 
VST, ST - Bearish
IT - Bullish but on edge
LT - Bullish (next update will be at end of week, last LT buy was at 1285 - /GC with a 3% stop)
VLT - Bearish
 

Monday, April 14, 2014

Market update

ST & VST & Very Long term - Bullish
Rest of the time frames  - Bearish


Saturday, April 12, 2014

Netflix Inc. & Tesla



From the above Fib sequence charts, it should be very clear what the 1st targets for the current trend are. TSLA had a slight overshoot in its frothiness at the 161.8. Trend change before the support lines? I highly doubt it. But, will keep you informed if trend changes. 

Friday, April 11, 2014

Questions and answers

I have had 2 questions from my stakeholders, very important ones: One was about GDX and another about yesterday morning's market update.

1, On Wednesday, my analysis indicated a buy signal for the markets. Yes, it did - based on the 4 hrly charts and the daily charts. My update also indicated a hourly sell signal. Absolutely contradictory. I manage 3 portfolios. One for the long term, one for the swing trading, and another for frequent trading. I understand your question, as soon as you read this - not everybody has 3 types of portfolios in their account, especially the small trader.  Unfortunately, swing trading (on daily charts) has not been very good in this "bull market". I could not beat the SPX last year, only because my swing trading portfolio underperformed. I am not alone in this regard. If you look at any hedge fund, they all say it is a tough market environment to invest. One day the market is up 2%, the next day down 3%, it goes on and on. Is the market moving so much in the weekly horizon? Not so much!!! But, for those of us who are trading the daily charts, it has been tough. Really tough. On the other hand, trading (on hourly charts) has been excellent, especially with these wild swings. The Intermediate and long term trading (weekly and monthly charts) has been very good as well. Unfortunately, that has been the name of the game. Anyway, right now as of market close yesterday, all timeframes except the VLT are on a sell.

2. Someone asked me few weeks ago if GDX is better than GLD or viceversa. At the beginning of this year, I forecasted that both will outperform the market. And yes, they did (chart below). I have also noted that GDX will outperform GLD. Unfortunately, that has not been the case even while GDX has significantly been up for the year. The main reason being GDX is a basket of Gold mining stocks. Obviously, the stocks trade along with the general market trend. If market conditions are unfavorable to be bullish, and Gold charts are bullish, I would go with GLD or /GC (future traders). Not with GDX.

 With the market being brutal/ choppy, if you maintain some rules on a strict basis, you should still come out with gains from time to time.  Good luck again!

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