Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Market update

We were eerily quiet for the last 2 weeks, right? When the market does nothing, it is better for us to not do anything as well. If you try too much, you will get chopped up and you will lose heart to play the market when it matters the most. 

Last 2 weeks = chop
We = stayed out
Blog = no posts :)

We do have ST, IT, LT short positions but we stayed out of trading, all right? We did the same thing for the 1st 6 months of this year. Market chopped all the participants on a regular basis, we stayed out till we saw signs of movement.

Anyway, previous update here

I mentioned we go bullish VST before driving south. We did go bullish by 40 - 50 /ES points since that post and then came down, but not much. At that time, we too did not expect this boring. We thought the market will show its hand right after. As we checked our charts everyday, it was obvious that nothing was there. We remained quiet. 

Current update (chart below)

The odds of the market becoming bearish again have increased as our guage indicates below and primed for the market to move south. 

VST - No recommendation
ST/ IT/ LT - Bearish

We hold 25% of our positions in the ST/ IT/ LT time frame as we closed the remaining 75% on that plunge around Aug. 25th = gains $$$$$$$$...........

If you don't have positions now, it is not time to open because this is stupid (FOMC) meeting week. You cannot afford to open a new position this week. If you have positions, be nimble should the trade go against you. GLTA!

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Oil update

We will go on to discuss oil (/CL) but let's start with the general market (/ES / SPX) update briefly. In our previous post, we mentioned that we were surprised to see market tank down 2% yesterday morning. Because the market internals were poised for sideways/ bullish posture.  Well, we were positioned short; we still are positioned short (ST/ IT/ LT) with trimmed positions. 

Our outlook for 1-3 days (VST) was neutral/ bullish. The futures market (/ES) is up ~ 1% as of now. For the next 1 - 3 days, we remain neutral. We would not be surprised if we see /ES ~ 1980 one more time before driving south. 

But, we remain flexible as always. Opinions do change with the market changes.

VST - Neutral
ST/ IT/ LT - Bearish

Previous oil update here (please see chart in this post)

This is where we stand today (chart below): 

/CL rallied ~ 28% bottom to top. We do not have positions in /CL = none. But, based on our trading methodology, we would have taken 50% off the position on a good rally like that one. And ride the rest with the house's money.

The chart was obviously aimed at IT/ LT traders but if you score 25% profit in 3 days, would you say no? :) 

Anyways, the outlook for oil is

VST/ ST - neutral = get stopped out while you are still profitable

IT/ LT - Bearish ( we don't see any change in the outlook even after the rally) until next turn


Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Market update

Previous market update here
Oil update coming in the next post :)

There is no change in the current market update:

ST/ IT/ LT - All on sell signals

As mentioned in our previous market update, we have taken 50% off on 08/21 at ~ SPX 2000 on . 
On 08/26, at SPX 1925, another 25% off ST position has been taken off. 

Currently holding: 

25% of ST position (will close on signal turn)
50% of IT position (will close on signal turn)
100% of LT position (will close above /ES 2035 and turn into a "buy")

We have taken good profits into this slide since 08/20. There is no way we are going into red on these positions. 

ST commentary:

Currently market futures (Emini /ES) are down 41 points. We are positioned short and the signal turn has not come to buy yet. But, the current structure doesn't support this 2% down today = surprise. Hence, we anticipated that the market rally towards SPX 1987 - 2030.  

One of the reasons is chart below, our guage was in neutral mode as of close yesterday:

We anticipate the guage into bearish mode if the market closes in big red today, as futures indicate now. The chart is not a holy grail. But, based on the chart, we expected the VST rally to continue or at least sideways. Even though our positions are all short. The last time we posted this chart was here . 

Either way, let the market work its way downward. A change can be anticipated in the VST if /ES 1943 is broken to the upside. 

IT commentary:

There is a long time for this slide to go. May be we have seen the bottom on 08/24, we have no idea of telling. But, that slide has created a situation that the market should work its way up slowly rather than make a immediate V shaped rally. 

LT commentary:

Trend is down till proved otherwise. If /ES 2035 is broken up, then we will evaluate if the market may see new highs. 


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