Thursday, August 18, 2011

Amazon Inc.

AMZN is down premarket to 191$. If close is below 190$, sell short. Keep it simple!

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Apple Inc

Long above that trendline, short below that trendline with a stop.

Monday, August 15, 2011

US Dollar index


According to my signals, USD is bearish which bodes well for the US market indices. Market discipline is absolutely important than these correlations though. If SPX closes below 1175, that is bearish, close long positions and get short. 

Volatility index

Currently, Spot VIX is priced at 31.81 as you can see from the above graph, as of close today. August VIX contracts are trading at 31.45, understandably so! August VIX expires on 08/17 morning. You can clearly see there is a ~ 5 difference between August VIX (Q1) and September VIX (labeled Q2). Spot VIX will be closer to the current month contracts and the market will be trading September VIX contracts from 08/17 as Spot VIX. Because of the difference in 2 contracts, VIX moves here can be quite volatile. Either the August contracts have to trade below to take the price closer to September contracts or Sept. contracts will move closer to Aug.  contract. VIX momentum for the last 3 days has been to the downside.

Gold outlook

1, The channel breakout may now work as a support for the falling daily prices. You could buy there with a 3% stop.
2, If the channel fails, then the channel's lower trendline at 1550 will offer support.

If you can see RSI and MACD, they are over extended by so much that the momentum is not sustainable by any means. Use puts on GLD to open short positions.

Thursday, August 11, 2011


Welcome to Silver Ven Capital!

Silver Ven Capital is a friends and family only private fund investing majority of the cash in equities and exchange traded funds. We also invest in and trade equity and index options for hedging purposes. We offer recommendations on stocks, indices, ETFs on a short term and long term basis.

I post my macro economic and stock market opinions on this blog. You can follow my blog by clicking on the "Join this site" button. I also post at Stocktwits from time to time, my handle there is SilverVen.

Read my post if you want to follow my methodology.

As always, I advocate you to feel comfortable on whatever you do in your life. If you feel good, do what you think. If you are feeling bad about something, step aside and think before you come back. Follow the same advice when you read this blog, whether it is buy or sell. Following discipline, sticking to your own rules first will help you in the long run.

When in doubt, ask a question!

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