Thursday, September 22, 2011

Warnings bell ringing!

If you read my last post, it would have been clear to you what risk you were taking when you have an elephant in the room. Further, if you followed my trading activity, my stance should have been clear. The latest shorts I initiated (ofcourse closed at this point of time) were after my elephant post. I also warned you about the Crude oil  Keep an eye on both blogs, raise questions if you have any.

Coming to the current update, the market did not like yesterday's Fed decision and are currently as much as 10% off those levels from yesterday afternoon.

I have 2 important things for you to look for:

1, Eur/ USD: Euro assumes a lot of significance in the wake of the current crisis with the PIIGS countries and European banks.

Eur/ USD is at a critical inflection point, yet again within a few days. A break below ~ 1.34, we are looking to go down deeper. Supports remain at 1.31, 1.304, 1.28 but those are not strong supports as much as 1.342 is.

2, Below is the SPX chart which serves as a very long term guide. If you look at the chart, notice that the RSI(14) is below 50 in bear markets, above 50 in bull markets. I take the 50 period moving average and 200 period average on any chart seriously. You can clearly see that the recent market crash stopped at the 200 monthly moving average. A small note about the 200 monthly moving average: If you notice the chart, the downside acceleration increased after SPX crossed the 50 MA below in 2008 and now. At that time in 2008, the 200 MA was still rising. But, the 200 MA now started becoming flat, which is an ominous sign that the bull market is ending. I was short the market from ~ 1200 on the SPX but closed all of them today. I will enter the shorts should SPX break 200 MMA with a stop above it. I will go long the market if SPX closes above 1155 with a stop. 
I don't recommend playing the market between SPX 1105 - 1150 unless compelling.

The above charts are very very simple, clear and concise as they can get. No complicated indicators, no trendlines, pitchforks. It pays to keep it simple sometimes and follow adequate market discipline. I always say market discipline weighs more on your trading account than anything else. Good luck trading to you!

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