Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Market update

Previous market update here
Oil update coming in the next post :)

There is no change in the current market update:

ST/ IT/ LT - All on sell signals

As mentioned in our previous market update, we have taken 50% off on 08/21 at ~ SPX 2000 on . 
On 08/26, at SPX 1925, another 25% off ST position has been taken off. 

Currently holding: 

25% of ST position (will close on signal turn)
50% of IT position (will close on signal turn)
100% of LT position (will close above /ES 2035 and turn into a "buy")

We have taken good profits into this slide since 08/20. There is no way we are going into red on these positions. 

ST commentary:

Currently market futures (Emini /ES) are down 41 points. We are positioned short and the signal turn has not come to buy yet. But, the current structure doesn't support this 2% down today = surprise. Hence, we anticipated that the market rally towards SPX 1987 - 2030.  

One of the reasons is chart below, our guage was in neutral mode as of close yesterday:

We anticipate the guage into bearish mode if the market closes in big red today, as futures indicate now. The chart is not a holy grail. But, based on the chart, we expected the VST rally to continue or at least sideways. Even though our positions are all short. The last time we posted this chart was here . 

Either way, let the market work its way downward. A change can be anticipated in the VST if /ES 1943 is broken to the upside. 

IT commentary:

There is a long time for this slide to go. May be we have seen the bottom on 08/24, we have no idea of telling. But, that slide has created a situation that the market should work its way up slowly rather than make a immediate V shaped rally. 

LT commentary:

Trend is down till proved otherwise. If /ES 2035 is broken up, then we will evaluate if the market may see new highs. 


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