Market update

ST/ VST - Turned to Sell

IT/ LT/ VLT - Buy

My barometers are saying this is a "Buy the dip" , unlikely that IT/ LT will turn to a sell but we will let the price dictate!

Gold update

ST/ VST - Buy

IT/ LT - Sell

Gold update

Last buy was at 1285$, check this update for previous comparison . We have been tracking that chart for several weeks now. I have had a Intermediate target of ~ 1550$ based on that chart and my signals. This week we had a turn on our IT and LT frames. I have a sell signal on daily and weekly time frames right now on Gold from a buy previously.

 

 

The best case for a bull right now is that we could be a in a chop. Unfortunately, I will take my signals. My stop is ~ $1,350. GDX is in a much worse position, BTW, obviously due to the recently sell off in the equities. 

 

All timesframes - Sell

 

 



Market update

Market update based on /ES & SPX

 

VST - Sell (based on current hourly chart)

ST - Buy (as of close yesterday)

IT - Buy (as of close yesterday)

LT - Sell

VLT - Buy

 

 

VST = hourly; ST = 4 hrly; IT = Daily; LT = Weekly; VLT = Monthly

These are my definitions, timeframes depends on volatility

 

Previous Gold update here . We are still nicely following the same trend, so I will post updates when trends change.

 

p.s: The earnings season is upon us. I would avoid earnings plays on individual stocks. I am not an earnings technician, I don't have the stomach for those gyrations. This is a nice time to trade the indices though, very manageable! Good luck!

 



Gold update

Gold is beautifully following in the footsteps of the chart I posted few weeks back. If you wish to read my comparison chart again, click here . Right now where we stand, Gold should be an excellent buy. This chance to buy will last this week and the next. Prices will absolutely take off on the upside from the week later. If you buy Gold at these levels, have a stop 3% below. Just in case!

Gold update

If you remember correctly, I predicted at the start of the year that Gold will fly into the 1500s before retreating to the bearish market. Many times in the past few months did Gold seemed that it would start a new bullish trend, but alas it keeps adjusting itself to the same area.

I was studying some past charts on yellow metal. I noticed something similar to the ongoing chart, albeit on a different time frame, you will see. During the techboom era, you can see that Gold formed a nice rounded bottom before zooming up. The price was tagging the (monthly) EMA 12 with a rounded bottom all along before spiking sharply higher into the next bull run.

Look the weekly chart below: 

I propose that the EMA 12 tagging will go on for the next few weeks. The breakout could be confirmed when the price crosses $1350, and then to ~ $1550. I will be happy to sit out this churn and chop before that.A double bottoms is in place. If you take a position now (aggressive investor!), have your stop below that W low.

JMHO

Sincerely!

Gold preview

       Looking for a test of the blue line in the next 4 - 5 months........

ST - Bullish

IT - Bullish

LT - Bearish

Just the beginning....

The 1st serious dip below $1600 was vigorously bought. Nobody took the dips around $1700, nobody bought. Everyone wanted to be smart in their own right. The price was in a box for several months between ~ 1550 to 1800 for several months. Everyone had it in their mind. So, the wait finally materialized when Gold dipped below 1600$ this year in April. Many people I know seriously bought at a discount price of 25%. Whoever missed buying on the 2008 dip. On the 1st dip. They were actually waiting for 4 years to be smart. Within 2 days, sellers were out of gold coins. And selling at a super premium. Then comes the big shaft. Till 1320ish. I thought the 1300s would wait for a while. And rally to 1475 or so before going down again. But, last night the sell off was brutal once again. Down 5% in 2 hours. Now, Gold has a serious resistance at 1320$. Let's forget downside for a while. We are looking for upside, right? Just like I thought 1550s would pose serious resistance to Gold at 1300s, now 1320 poses good resistance if we look at the chart going back to July 2010. So, if we want the price to see an ascent to 1500$, 1320$ should break 1st.

I am guessing 1200s should hold for a while. Knowing the "Spiking slow and falling hard" theory, I wouldn't be surprised if 1200 breaks down. And I know you don't mind, because you stood staring (without selling any of your metal) all the way up and you will do so on the way down as well. To be honest, I planned to sell some of my ornamental gold above 2,000$. But, it never came. See, I had a plan. So did many others who held gold coins. I never had any "gold coins" but just ornaments and paper Gold. I trade paper Gold on a regular basis but the ornaments' sale never fulfilled. I will have to wait till the next big cycle. Well, I won't live that long, so no worries anyway. When Gold dipped below 1600, many people said it was just the beginning (of the bull market), so let's buy more. It turned out to be the beginning, but of the bear market. Chart below shows that, read the circle. 

My indicator tells me that we are in the beginning of a bear market, with the 1st tick below 0 occurring in May 2013. Many pundits define a bear market as a price below 20% off the highs, so my indicator does satisfy that technical definition too. For the good of the bulls, I hope the parabolic rise holds, I want to see atleast a touch of 1500$ from below. But, seriously, if I have to be honest, I see a meeting with the blue line in the next 12 months at 900 - 1000$ price. If Gold price waits that long, that is. Because somebody wants to see Gold lower sooner and in a hurry.....

Please help me by copying the message "ditto" to silver traders as well.

Gold update

I am looking for a bounce here at this level. However, the damage is done. Sell your short term positions on any rally because we are going lower on Gold and silver. Intermediate and long term positions are still good. 

Market signals update - Buy

I have buy signals on the daily charts which extrapolates to short term.

US markets - Buy, I would buy any dips in the market.
Gold - Buy with a target of 1690$ and then I expect sell off to ~ 1300$
Crude oil - Neutral to bearish, I would stay away from it.

I have some good and interesting charts which I will share within 24 hours. BTW, I am ignoring the FOMC meeting. There could be some volatility but my signals include all of that volatility and much more.

Good trading all!

A good kiss?

Is that a sign of times to come? Trendline break and you can kiss goodbye!

Gold outlook

1, The channel breakout may now work as a support for the falling daily prices. You could buy there with a 3% stop.
2, If the channel fails, then the channel's lower trendline at 1550 will offer support.

If you can see RSI and MACD, they are over extended by so much that the momentum is not sustainable by any means. Use puts on GLD to open short positions.