Thursday, June 20, 2013

Just the beginning....

The 1st serious dip below $1600 was vigorously bought. Nobody took the dips around $1700, nobody bought. Everyone wanted to be smart in their own right. The price was in a box for several months between ~ 1550 to 1800 for several months. Everyone had it in their mind. So, the wait finally materialized when Gold dipped below 1600$ this year in April. Many people I know seriously bought at a discount price of 25%. Whoever missed buying on the 2008 dip. On the 1st dip. They were actually waiting for 4 years to be smart. Within 2 days, sellers were out of gold coins. And selling at a super premium. Then comes the big shaft. Till 1320ish. I thought the 1300s would wait for a while. And rally to 1475 or so before going down again. But, last night the sell off was brutal once again. Down 5% in 2 hours. Now, Gold has a serious resistance at 1320$. Let's forget downside for a while. We are looking for upside, right? Just like I thought 1550s would pose serious resistance to Gold at 1300s, now 1320 poses good resistance if we look at the chart going back to July 2010. So, if we want the price to see an ascent to 1500$, 1320$ should break 1st.

I am guessing 1200s should hold for a while. Knowing the "Spiking slow and falling hard" theory, I wouldn't be surprised if 1200 breaks down. And I know you don't mind, because you stood staring (without selling any of your metal) all the way up and you will do so on the way down as well. To be honest, I planned to sell some of my ornamental gold above 2,000$. But, it never came. See, I had a plan. So did many others who held gold coins. I never had any "gold coins" but just ornaments and paper Gold. I trade paper Gold on a regular basis but the ornaments' sale never fulfilled. I will have to wait till the next big cycle. Well, I won't live that long, so no worries anyway. When Gold dipped below 1600, many people said it was just the beginning (of the bull market), so let's buy more. It turned out to be the beginning, but of the bear market. Chart below shows that, read the circle. 

My indicator tells me that we are in the beginning of a bear market, with the 1st tick below 0 occurring in May 2013. Many pundits define a bear market as a price below 20% off the highs, so my indicator does satisfy that technical definition too. For the good of the bulls, I hope the parabolic rise holds, I want to see atleast a touch of 1500$ from below. But, seriously, if I have to be honest, I see a meeting with the blue line in the next 12 months at 900 - 1000$ price. If Gold price waits that long, that is. Because somebody wants to see Gold lower sooner and in a hurry.....

Please help me by copying the message "ditto" to silver traders as well.

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