Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Market update

Previous market update here

VST/ ST - Sell
IT changed to Sell today
LT/ VLT - Buy and hold

Check my timeframes here

Monday, June 29, 2015

Market update

Previous market update here

My ST signals have been on a sell since 3 weeks. No change yet and we didn't get a buy signal yet. Since something "greek" is going on, let us look at one simple chart. The support for the $SPX lies in the ~ 2065 - 2070 area. A flush below this strong level, there is thin support at the ~ 2040 level. Below that, at the ~ 1980 level. The US market futures are down about 1.5% at this time but remember that it is only the daily close on the actual indices that matter.

We were on a "sell" signal since 3 weeks based on our indicators (one of them below in the chart). You might be wondering what we did in the last 3 weeks. We don't trade only the buy and sell signals. In addition to the flipping of positions during these signals, we take advantage of the dips and rips by scaling in and out. In other words, if the market moves in the direction of our trade, we do take some chips off the table. That ensures that we book our profits. Please read our trading methodology. The market has indeed come to the ~ 2070 level twice in the last 3 weeks. Some of the positions were partially closed when that happened. This is the 3rd time we are about that level. 

What happens tomorrow? I have no idea. Be careful out there. Use stops, and do not over trade on days like this.  I am not necessarily saying we will crash tomorrow but some caution should be exerted. There is always another tomorrow!


Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Market update

Previous market update here

The market was on a sell signal from the previous update. After 8 sessions, yet, the market is at the same point (SPX as barometer). However, we have not gotten a buy signal. For this swing trade (next few days), the signal is still on a sell. The market should see lower prices. This call is only for the IT/ Intermediate term.

Could this be the end of the bull market? May be an initiation. We have stops for the long term market charts much lower, so we cannot call this a sell signal on the long term yet. But, we will see higher prices and this swing trade is a buy the dip. My common sense indicators suggest that this will be a buy on the dip. One of the stocks that is an example of this raging bull market is NFLX. NFLX is near its all time highs. Bull markets don't end when the leaders are hitting all time highs. We will take note when the change happens. 

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

Is the market all and only about options?

Is the market all about puts and calls? The above chart says so. I have posted this chart on my blog countless times. I have had a success rate of >90% (remember that nothing is 100% sure) in calling tops and bottoms. 2015 April mid till now was a chopfest, so "my indicator" failed. But anyway coming back to the topic, the market swings according to how the puts and calls are traded? 

Or is it that the MAJOR market participants do know the short term outcome and levitate accordingly? 

Does it make a difference to know what is going on behind the scenes? Do we care political/ economic drama that goes behind? Not so much. 

So, let's get back to business and call a top here. Good luck to all! 

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