Market update

Recently we have launched a $100k trading portfolio. Please click the link, titled "SilverVen's 100k trading portfolio", on the right side of this post.  The trades are revealed to the public in real time on twitter or stocktwits ; The spreadsheet in the link will reveal the same, and track the previous trades. 

Last trades 

Closed SPY from $192 to $199; closed XIV from $24.6 to $27.85

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Previous market update here

Current market update

ST - Buy since Oct. 2nd
IT/ LT - Sell

The market has been on a ST buy since Oct. 2nd. The market still is on a ST buy. We closed the ST long positions merely to avoid volatility before the FOMC on 10/08. The liquidity (based on our charts) is considerably better compared to June - Sept. We are about almost to get a buy signal on the IT as well. 

GLTA!

What happens next - Part 2

Current market rating here

I am posting 3 scenarios on what to do if you are short, long, neutral right now.

We took 50% off the ST and IT positions on 08/21 at market close, explanation below. I will let the other 50% of the positions stop themselves, higher or lower, when the turn signal is initiated. LT positions will be stopped on a close of > /ES 2035.

Anyway, where does the market go from here. As I posted in my previous post, I have no clue. Up? Down? Sideways for several days? No idea. Everyone out there is throwing darts at the market, one of the darts will hit the bulls eye. My experience tells me that instead of guesstimating what the market does next, it is best to have plans on how to manage the positions. 

• Have a plan to do if XYZ happens
• It doesn't matter if that doesn't happen, you still have a plan B if PQR happens

In other words, be flexible in this market. If you are chopped by market whipsaws, that is still ok. Take a walk and come back to trade another time. I do have suggestions on what to do if you are:

• Short right now: If you are short from ~ 100 SPX points above like us, take some off the table. That way, your profits will be ensured. Because what if the markets rally straight up from here? You have profits, so take some off the positions. Then, there are 2 scenarios. Market goes up or down. If market goes down, wait for the turn. Close the positions when the market turns. If the market goes up from here, have a stop at about SPX 2065. You still end up profitable being in short positions on this "mini crash" because you scaled out already.
• Long right now: Depends on what level you were long from. We sure hope that you didn't enter long positions at SPX 2100. If you did, you should have been stopped out before 6% down. If you entered long somewhere around, 2025 - 2050, you still should have been stopped by now. If you didn't close the longs on friday at market close and are expecting a rally next, we cannot help. Because there is no guarantee rally is going to come next. May be it will rally. May be it will not. We don't see the rally yet. Without any buying in the market in the last 3 days, how can you expect the market to rally? There are no indications right now that market will rally. That may change come Monday, but we have to see the evidence. 
• No positions right now: This is the best place to be in. :) Cash is King!!! Traders who are in cash are at a huge advantage. Traders who are short right now, have to close their short positions and then take longs - in other words, they have to be ultraflexible about 2 moves; There is a high chance that this group may miss the next up move. If you are in cash now, you are obviusly relaxed and will see the next turn better without getting whipsawed.

Do not try to trade counter trend moves, you will lose the opportunity. We were short on ST, IT, LT positions prior to market open on 08/21. But, we were "expecting" VST counter trend move upwards. We knew for sure that the market did not bottom, hence clearly mentioned this was a VST move. But, the VST move did not materialize and we got stopped at /ES 2005. As a result, we were down 0.6% on the VST move AND we lost the opportunity to profit on the VST short positions from /ES 2021 to 1970. May be VST, but still 50 points is a big move. 

Hence, do not try to trade counter trend moves.

Do not guess the up moves. 

Be nimble

GLTA!

Market update

Previous update here

We had to post the previous update to guide ST longs on when to close the position and what levels are important. The /ES futures market was down 15 handles, hence defining levels was important. As posted yesterday, market closed below /ES 2060 and /ES 2035 as well. 

ST - changed from buy to sell

IT - had been a sell signal since July 26

LT - changed to sell from buy

Our options machine is in the "sell" zone, so exercise caution. Chart below. Could this sell move be a headfake? Well, may be, but let the market tell us that point. We are confident to read the charts when that happens.

I am a contrarian but I do follow the charts to identify the trend. I do not play counter trend moves though. Being a contrarian and a counter trend trader are quite different. 

We will post an update when the ST trend changes.

GLTA!

Market update

Previous market update here

ST changed from sell to buy
IT - sell
LT - Buy

GLTA!

Market update

Previous market update here

First up, we have a buy recommendation for you. Buy Dominion resources with a 5% stop, chart below

Market update

Previous market update here

No change in the market update as of now. We had a ST sell from 26th July @ SPX 2079.xx

I will post a change in signal as soon as we see it. But, let me post a warning to the bears. This is good for the shorts to close the position. 

The circled turn marks the bottom of the market whereas the arrow confirms the turn. This indicator serves as a warning prior to the turn. But, the signal change is not there yet! 

GLTA!

Market update

Previous market update here

We do not have a change in the market update as of now

VST/ ST - Sell

IT - Sell

LT - Buy

We mentioned that we will take a short position should the market close below SPX 2095. The index did close below 2095 on 08/04 and we did open a short position. However, we closed the position the next day as the market closed above it. 

In short, we do not hold a ST position now. The above update holds good until the next signal comes in. But, we did enter the warning (for the bears) territory already (see chart below). The confirmation would be a turn below the blue line that the turn (to buy) is in place. As long as the indicator is above the blue line, then the bears don't need to worry. I don't rue a missed chance to be short now, sometimes it happens. This stance is for the ST position only. We do hold a IT short position though.

If I were holding short positions now, I would not close the position. Coz we only gained like ~ 1% + with this sell signal , but I would have stops above SPX 2105.

We will keep you posted, GLTA!

Market update

Previous market update here

No change in the current market update from the previous one, but we do have a warning (chart below). To be honest, there are several warnings in all time frames, some of the warnings being extreme. But, this market wouldn't budge down. It continues to amaze us.

We don't hold any ST positions as the market did not close below SPX 2095. One of the good things for me personally was that I did not trade much from Dec. 2014 - June 2015 for ~ 6 months, luckily. The last 1 month has been super whipsawy, hence I can understand how it must have felt to have traded during that period. I did not trade, but our staff have traded and I easily understand them. 

Usually we do not do much political/ fundamental commentary 'coz: 

1) Trading is not about talking, it is an art in itself which is based 70% on a) putting the right risk size on the table and b) being flexible to close positions

2) If we start to talk, then we will have to dish out some criticism on someone out there - which is not our wont. 

Out there, I am reading reviews suggesting that the "fear seen among investors now is same as the fear at the 2009 market lows" Oh, really? 

How do you measure fear in the markets? Objectively or subjectively? 

If you poll 100 people on fear about markets, that is subjective. If you look at the data from the market exchanges and derive fear that is objective. 

If investors are fearful of the markets, they should either buy puts or get out of the market, right? We simply don't see any extreme levels of "fear" among investors. If you say there is extreme fear among market participants only 2% off the all time highs, you must be kidding!

Anyway, we do not subscribe to the notion that we are seeing extreme fear currently. Atleast, it is not simply seen in the data. In fact, it is opposite of what is being reported in the interweb.

Chart below

This is only a warning that top is probably in (or close) for this ST frame. This is not a signal, however. Especially in this market where every indicator and signal has been mercilessly trashed. 

It still pays to watch for the warnings, as it allows us to be prepared of the risk that is in the markets out there. Nothing more, nothing less.....

GLTA!

Market update

Previous market update here

VST - Buy

ST - Sell

IT - Sell

LT - Buy

ST is on the border of sell & buy. No change yet! Our ST positions were stopped at 2% up from where we opened the position...phew! Should the market drop below SPX 2095, we will open the short sell market ST position again. Should the market continue upward, we will take the signal.

The problem is FOMC day. Things are not straight both before & after FOMC day. Never mind as we can wait.....

market update

Previous market update here

We got a warning sign yesterday from our options tool, hardly 2 days into this "buy" signal. But, no sign of VST/ ST signal change yet. So, we remain put. Especially considering it is a FOMC day. We reiterate again that we don't trade around FOMC. We do have 2% and 5%  stops for ST and IT frames.

I am all ears on what the Fed chief will say about our economy. It is just that we don't trade what they say.....GLTA! 

Market update

Previous market update here

ST - changed to sell from buy as of close on 07/24

IT - changed to sell from buy as of close on 07/24

LT - buy

ST position: In our previous market update, we posted that we are taking 50% of our position off at 2.5% profit and 25% stopped at 2100. There are times when scaling off seems dumb, for example when the swing trade results in 10% or so. But, that's the reason why we have some left on the table. If the market conntinues in the same direction of our trade, so be it, we will have our chips there. Also, we were not scaling off for no reason. We had this warning sign (chart below) on 07/21. 

IT: IT changed to sell from buy. Previous signal was on 07/17 at SPX 2126. Which is a ~ 2.2% loss of our position. IT loss eats away our ST profits. Ah, humbug!

Anyway, good luck to all! 

Market update

Previous market update here

ST - Buy

IT - Buy

LT - Buy

All my positions are on buy signal, no change in trend yet, though I am seeing warning signals on the ST and LT. I am taking off 50% off of my ST position (here)with a 2.5% profit in ticker SPY, as 2.5% in ~ 10 days is kind of nice. Stop for 25% of this position is at SPX 2100 - to ensure the profits don't slip away. The other 25% will be flipped when the sell short signal comes on. This small blogpost sums up my strategy = scale out of profitable positions = always win!

GLTA!

Market update

Previous update here

ST - Buy

IT - changed to Buy

LT - Buy

As we noted many times in the past on this blog, we simply hate IT trading. Especially this market since the bull market began in 2009. This market swings almost every month up and down. That is ideal for ST trading. But, at the same time, not so good for IT trading. LT investing on the other hand is good as the trend has been up except in 2011. IT trading was excellent prior to 2006. 

Anyways, we were down 2.5% on the previous IT trade. We have a stop of 5% should the stop hit our trade before the signal comes. Which means our portfolio is okay getting a hit of 5% on this trade. We wouldn't say "fine" but just "okay". If not for these IT chops, our portfolio would be in much better shape. 

Good luck next week! 

Market update

Previous market update here

VST/ ST - Sell

IT changed to Sell today

LT/ VLT - Buy and hold

Check my timeframes here

Market update

Previous market update here

My ST signals have been on a sell since 3 weeks. No change yet and we didn't get a buy signal yet. Since something "greek" is going on, let us look at one simple chart. The support for the $SPX lies in the ~ 2065 - 2070 area. A flush below this strong level, there is thin support at the ~ 2040 level. Below that, at the ~ 1980 level. The US market futures are down about 1.5% at this time but remember that it is only the daily close on the actual indices that matter.

We were on a "sell" signal since 3 weeks based on our indicators (one of them below in the chart). You might be wondering what we did in the last 3 weeks. We don't trade only the buy and sell signals. In addition to the flipping of positions during these signals, we take advantage of the dips and rips by scaling in and out. In other words, if the market moves in the direction of our trade, we do take some chips off the table. That ensures that we book our profits. Please read our trading methodology. The market has indeed come to the ~ 2070 level twice in the last 3 weeks. Some of the positions were partially closed when that happened. This is the 3rd time we are about that level. 

What happens tomorrow? I have no idea. Be careful out there. Use stops, and do not over trade on days like this.  I am not necessarily saying we will crash tomorrow but some caution should be exerted. There is always another tomorrow!

GLTA!

Market update

Previous market update here

The market was on a sell signal from the previous update. After 8 sessions, yet, the market is at the same point (SPX as barometer). However, we have not gotten a buy signal. For this swing trade (next few days), the signal is still on a sell. The market should see lower prices. This call is only for the IT/ Intermediate term.

Could this be the end of the bull market? May be an initiation. We have stops for the long term market charts much lower, so we cannot call this a sell signal on the long term yet. But, we will see higher prices and this swing trade is a buy the dip. My common sense indicators suggest that this will be a buy on the dip. One of the stocks that is an example of this raging bull market is NFLX. NFLX is near its all time highs. Bull markets don't end when the leaders are hitting all time highs. We will take note when the change happens. 

Market update

Previous market update here

 

VST/ ST - New buy signal

 IT/ LT/ VLT - Buy

 

Previous sell signal was a fail = This ST/ VST updates could be chop and top/ drop. Trading portfolio is getting chopped. But, IT remained a buy signal through out, so we are better in that account.

 

Except internals (Breadth and other liquidity indicators), everything in the externals are firm including price structure. Breadth has been bad for the last 2 months, indicating topping. In 2007-2008, it took 3 months for the price to realize bad breadth. But, in 1998 - 2000, it took 2 years for the market to eventually top. Bad breadth continued to push the market higher from 1998 to 2000. So, there is no telling if the market will top tomorrow or in 2 years. Our barometer has not given a signal either, so wait for IT change in stucture, not yet at least!

 

Internals are obviously bad, so be prudent; Be flexible; Signals may fail, signals may be profitable but be advised to be change your mind at the hint of change in direction.

 

 

 

 



Market update

VST/ST - Sell

IT - Turned to Sell at close yesterday

LT/ VLT - Buy

Previous update here



Market update

ST/ VST - Turned to buy as of close on 09/05

IT/ LT - Buy

Previous update here

 

Our previous sell (VST/ ST) yielded some downside (to the 1988 SPX area) but wasn't good enough to capitalize on it, hence we got stopped out higher = loss. No problem, as it was only a 8 point loss.

 

 

Gold update

 

ST/ VST on a buy

IT/ LT - Sell

 

 



Market update

ST/ VST - Turned to Sell

IT/ LT/ VLT - Buy

My barometers are saying this is a "Buy the dip" , unlikely that IT/ LT will turn to a sell but we will let the price dictate!

Gold update

ST/ VST - Buy

IT/ LT - Sell

Market update

Good morning Trader, How is you? 

I have taken a good break for a couple of months. I did miss a couple of market swings, but I was working on other important opportunities for myself. So, I didn't miss anything for not trading for the past 2 months. I got back couple of weeks back, I took time to settle into a rhythm, I traded on paper for 2 weeks. I am ready for new trades.

The market hasn't gone anywhere in the last 1 1/2 months. In the market, there are going to be phases like this. Hence, even if you are a market trader (trading /ES or SPY or QQQ...), you will benefit if you trade some other stocks with high volume, big market caps, no/ low news tickers. Every single ticker doesn't always rhyme with the market. 

Market update

VST/ ST/ IT/ LT - on Sell obviously (no positions)

VLT - ticked to Sell right now but too early as we are only in the 1st week of the month, things can change by the end of this month

For definitions of my time frame terms - click here 

We are on sell mode in all time frames, things look gloomy, huh? If you are already on the short side, hold on! I do not suggest new positions in the middle. I am looking for a turn, however. Few of my barometers have been suggesting a turn (one below in the chart) but price is king and indicators are queen. Barometers like the below only suggest me that a possibility of a turn is possible, but no guarantees till the price turns. 

I have posted this chart few times in the past to pick tops and bottoms. At this point of this barometer, it can be said we are forming a bottom. It doesn't mean you exit your current positions. It means that you should be on alert for the possibility of an exit/ scale out of your current (short market) positions.  

Gold update

VST - Buy

ST - Turned to buy at 9 am EST

IT - Sell

LT - Buy

VLT - Buy