Monday, August 15, 2011

US Dollar index


According to my signals, USD is bearish which bodes well for the US market indices. Market discipline is absolutely important than these correlations though. If SPX closes below 1175, that is bearish, close long positions and get short. 

Volatility index

Currently, Spot VIX is priced at 31.81 as you can see from the above graph, as of close today. August VIX contracts are trading at 31.45, understandably so! August VIX expires on 08/17 morning. You can clearly see there is a ~ 5 difference between August VIX (Q1) and September VIX (labeled Q2). Spot VIX will be closer to the current month contracts and the market will be trading September VIX contracts from 08/17 as Spot VIX. Because of the difference in 2 contracts, VIX moves here can be quite volatile. Either the August contracts have to trade below to take the price closer to September contracts or Sept. contracts will move closer to Aug.  contract. VIX momentum for the last 3 days has been to the downside.

Gold outlook

1, The channel breakout may now work as a support for the falling daily prices. You could buy there with a 3% stop.
2, If the channel fails, then the channel's lower trendline at 1550 will offer support.

If you can see RSI and MACD, they are over extended by so much that the momentum is not sustainable by any means. Use puts on GLD to open short positions.

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