Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Market update

Previous market update here
VST/ ST - New buy signal
 IT/ LT/ VLT - Buy
Previous sell signal was a fail = This ST/ VST updates could be chop and top/ drop. Trading portfolio is getting chopped. But, IT remained a buy signal through out, so we are better in that account.
Except internals (Breadth and other liquidity indicators), everything in the externals are firm including price structure. Breadth has been bad for the last 2 months, indicating topping. In 2007-2008, it took 3 months for the price to realize bad breadth. But, in 1998 - 2000, it took 2 years for the market to eventually top. Bad breadth continued to push the market higher from 1998 to 2000. So, there is no telling if the market will top tomorrow or in 2 years. Our barometer has not given a signal either, so wait for IT change in stucture, not yet at least!
Internals are obviously bad, so be prudent; Be flexible; Signals may fail, signals may be profitable but be advised to be change your mind at the hint of change in direction.

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