Sunday, August 23, 2015

What happens next - Part 2

Current market rating here

I am posting 3 scenarios on what to do if you are short, long, neutral right now.

We took 50% off the ST and IT positions on 08/21 at market close, explanation below. I will let the other 50% of the positions stop themselves, higher or lower, when the turn signal is initiated. LT positions will be stopped on a close of > /ES 2035.

Anyway, where does the market go from here. As I posted in my previous post, I have no clue. Up? Down? Sideways for several days? No idea. Everyone out there is throwing darts at the market, one of the darts will hit the bulls eye. My experience tells me that instead of guesstimating what the market does next, it is best to have plans on how to manage the positions. 

  • Have a plan to do if XYZ happens
  • It doesn't matter if that doesn't happen, you still have a plan B if PQR happens
In other words, be flexible in this market. If you are chopped by market whipsaws, that is still ok. Take a walk and come back to trade another time. I do have suggestions on what to do if you are:

  • Short right now: If you are short from ~ 100 SPX points above like us, take some off the table. That way, your profits will be ensured. Because what if the markets rally straight up from here? You have profits, so take some off the positions. Then, there are 2 scenarios. Market goes up or down. If market goes down, wait for the turn. Close the positions when the market turns. If the market goes up from here, have a stop at about SPX 2065. You still end up profitable being in short positions on this "mini crash" because you scaled out already.
  • Long right now: Depends on what level you were long from. We sure hope that you didn't enter long positions at SPX 2100. If you did, you should have been stopped out before 6% down. If you entered long somewhere around, 2025 - 2050, you still should have been stopped by now. If you didn't close the longs on friday at market close and are expecting a rally next, we cannot help. Because there is no guarantee rally is going to come next. May be it will rally. May be it will not. We don't see the rally yet. Without any buying in the market in the last 3 days, how can you expect the market to rally? There are no indications right now that market will rally. That may change come Monday, but we have to see the evidence. 
  • No positions right now: This is the best place to be in. :) Cash is King!!! Traders who are in cash are at a huge advantage. Traders who are short right now, have to close their short positions and then take longs - in other words, they have to be ultraflexible about 2 moves; There is a high chance that this group may miss the next up move. If you are in cash now, you are obviusly relaxed and will see the next turn better without getting whipsawed.

Do not try to trade counter trend moves, you will lose the opportunity. We were short on ST, IT, LT positions prior to market open on 08/21. But, we were "expecting" VST counter trend move upwards. We knew for sure that the market did not bottom, hence clearly mentioned this was a VST move. But, the VST move did not materialize and we got stopped at /ES 2005. As a result, we were down 0.6% on the VST move AND we lost the opportunity to profit on the VST short positions from /ES 2021 to 1970. May be VST, but still 50 points is a big move. 

Hence, do not try to trade counter trend moves.
Do not guess the up moves. 
Be nimble

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