Saturday, October 22, 2011

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar index is definitely in a bearish trend. For now, the 50 DMA provides support. US Dollar index is a risk off trade, and is inversely correlated to the US stock market. I expect the 50 DMA to break next week and the 200 DMA should give good support. Will 200 DMA hold? The MACD is turning down which indicates the continuation of the trend down. The histogram also ticked one down than the day before. For the MACD to turn up again (to turn this chart to bullish), it will take atleast few days time. Meanwhile, the candles should bounce on the 200 DMA. There is also the previous breakout support at ~ 75. If the 200 DMA doesn't hold and the MACD continues downward, then it is ultrabearish for the Dollar index and uberbullish for the market. You can also note that Eur/USD is just pips away from the upside resistance. Both these currencies can play pingpong in a small range for the next few days, and markets will definitely take it as positive. 

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