Saturday, December 15, 2012

AAPL update

Andy Zaky and Cody Willard who loaded on AAPL calls at 700$ and then 650$ on margin are as good as dead now from loading up to their gills. While Andy Zaky's last public post came on October 23rd, Cody Willard is now seen answering questions about the fundamental big picture on marketwatch like he is some expert on market fundamentals. Lol. Few days ago, I was having a conversation with a stocktwitser and he was saying Andy Zaky made a lot of money on AAPL in the last few years. Yes, they were rewarded from AAPL's long run for a long time by getting lucky but they frittered it away. Both levered it up many more times than they actually can, bought options on margin. Word on the street is Zaky is now unofficially bankrupt. People like them will continue to load it up on both stock and calls as the AAPL plunges and will get delivered by a big shaft named AAPL. They had no clue while it was going up, they will have no clue when it is going down. Every Tom, Zaky and Cody will be right in a bull market. It is them who survive the bear markets finally make it to the end. Zaky and Cody are not one of them.

Exactly when AAPL hit a generational low (sarcasm peeps), I posted this . AAPL rallied hard and then hard till 590$, everyone who proposed the generational low thought I was wrong.  If you read that blogpost well, I said there will be violent moves in both directions, long and short. I said fortunes will be made and lost. AAPL is a stock that cuts both longs and shorts. It has been that way forever, and it will continue to be like that. If you check market action of AAPL in the long time, between peaks and bottoms, you will find that it often cut itself into 1/2 or then double again. For example, in 2008 from 180+ to 110$ and then again to 180+ and then to bottom at 80ish. These type of moves happened even when the stock was in the teens. These will happen even now, except the volatility has risen now much more. Big gap downs and gap ups seem common. Most of the traders have no clue which way it goes. I have been making good money off of it, but I rarely hold overnight, mostly by trading intraday. I don't want to keep a loaded gun in my pocket while I am asleep, nope. Traders have no clue, then investors don't have any idea what investing is. Yes, some of them have made 1000%+ gains in the last decade but what is the use if they don't make it to the bank. They are clinging to their positions thinking that the fundamental big picture is excellent. Apple as a company will be here (I hope so!) in the next 10 years just like Microsoft but as a stock it will underperform in the long run now. Law of averages will catch up eventually. 

I am still clinging to my 'generational low' post even now. We are yet to see a bottom in the intermediate term. The gravity is too high and the stock cannot sustain here. New intermediate lows are coming. My only hope for the bulls is for the stock to bottom in the 490ish range where the monthly 20 MA sits. Of course  the bottom would not complete till the ticker hits 430ish. But, first 490$, then upside and then again start the move lower. That will kill both longs and shorts, get it? Yep, bear markets kill both bears and bulls because moves will be violent in both directions. That is why market veterans ask us to be in cash in bear markets, and they are true for a reason. That is it for now on AAPL.

Market update:

VST - Bearish
ST - Bearish
IT - Bullish
LT - Bullish

Use SPY/ DIA to play my market updates. QQQ is out of sync due to the AAPL fiasco.

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