NetFlix Inc.

NetFlix Inc. announced that it is cutting its 3rd qtr. subscription guidance by 1 million. Looking for a technical standpoint on its security, currently (in premarket) NFLX is trading at 182$.

The lower trendline of the channel dates back to late 2008. If NFLX closes the day below ~ 180$, you can safely short the stock. If the channel holds, buy above 180$ with a 5% stop.

Time for chop to end

Crude oil formed a nice bear flag for the last 24 sessions. It is about to end tomorrow +/- 2 sessions. My target lower is 75 - 77$.

Circled in the figure are the previous chops, before resolution to the downside.

Trendline update

Update on the trendline that I mentioned in my previous post. Yesterday before close, the market ramped up heavily, to the tune of 1.5 - 2.5% depending on which index you are looking at, creating a "bullish reveral" like scenario. It seemed to me that the trendline broke above, but at this time I see a trendline break below again. Other than that trendline break above, none of the other indicators broke to the upside. One point to note at this time is, the Composite index (NASDAQ100) did not break down on Thursday last week, courtesy of big names like AAPL, AMZN, etc.

At this hour again, the emini SP futures broke below. Why this sudden drop (as seen in the charts) of 20 /ES points in 30 mins? Apparently, BNP Paribas exec tells the press that US market funds are not lending anymore. The business channels are not telecast at this hour, so I cannot confirm this news.

Market taste

The market taste is sour and bitter testing both the bulls and the bears. I believe we will continue to test that trendline for the next 2 days as we work off the oversold condition. The trend is down. I am invested short 20% only with covered puts. Net net, I should see the profits by the end of this week. Crossing above the trendline is only one of the indicators I will be looking for a trend change to bullish, but there are lot more indicators.