Swing trading update

Swing traders, take 50% of the short position off at SPY 116.2$. We had the signal at 122.15$. TNA short position is reduced to a mere 10% now. I will make a detailed post later in the weekend.

AMZN, PNRA

AMZN is in a downtrend. I expect it to continue and hit the lower trendline of the megaphone pattern. I see a bounce there and then I expect AMZN to go down, and down. 10 cents EPS/ qtr and > 200 PPS? You got to be kidding me. Sure, billions of $ in revenue, great traffic yada yada. It all comes down to earnings per share! Wall street is not short of pumper analysts and greedy hedge funds - so take it from me. A buy of AMZN even at this level doesn't make any sense. Sell all rallies!

Panera Bread is in a sector which is very hot right now - Speciality eatery. While I say the rally is not sustainable, I am not looking for any long term downtrend atleast at this time. Time is not ripe for a super decline for this ticker. Not yet. Right now, I am looking for a gap fill as marked. We had a down gap on the previous earnings release. The ticker jumped straight above the gap on earnings release this time. We have the 100 day EMA below the double gap and I expect it to fill it.

ST signal

My swing/ ST system entered short sell signal today. Sell short SPY at 122.1$ ie., today's close with a 5% stop. VST is already on sell signal, I missed the VST signal yesterday because of the chop that preceded for 2 days. Never mind!

Cash is King!

Summary of the market:

1. The market did not break out above /ES 1260 as expected. Rule # 1: There is no gift horse in the stock market.
2. I had mixed signals throughout the day, from buy to sell to buy to sell...that for a period of 1 full day makes me suspect if the market goes up or down tomorrow. I had not gotten such type of day with mixed signals for a long long time. Till there is clarity, move to cash. I was stopped out today at the end of the day. Down but like I mentioned in my previous posts, I am able to afford it.
3. In the chart below, look at the highlighted triangle. If SPY falls below, I see a big air pocket below the break down. Target can be anywhere but lower at ~ 110. SPY could breakout above as well but that is to be determined. When there is big TBD, I am moving both VST and ST models to cash.

4. I could not get this post on time because of rapid move during the last hour. What does this tell you? Nobody but you will be able to close positions when needed. You should be able to organize stops for your portfolio. If you can't do that, stay out of the stock market.