Thursday, November 10, 2011

Overnight breakout moves

Let me introduce you to symmetrical triangles first. Go to Bulkowski's site and read the entire page. We will apply the "trading tips" area of the page to my chart below. Link

The chart is /ES hourly with RSI(14) indicator below. Price has been trading in the triangle for the last 2 days. I was scared of the breakout in an opposite direction to my trade, hence I had to get out today. Let us now apply Bulkowski's ideas to this chart. 

Using the measure rule, our trading target (base of the triangle ~ 1245 - 1218 = 27) from 1240 should be 1267 on the /ES, which ~ converts to 1270 on SPX i.e., 200 DMA. Breakout volume is light, obviously this being a nightly move. Throwback rate (failed move) is 37% and pullback (to the point of breakout) is 59%. Beware of these things. I used the RSI(14) EMA for confirmation. Usually RSI is not my buy or sell signal, my system signal is a different one and most of the times it results in a terminal move. I haven't gotten a signal yet but mine is late but with high probability, keep in mind. I reckon RSI(14) is good enough in this context. If you read at the apex of the triangle, it is converging at 3 AM ET which is the opening time of European markets. Humdinger, isn't it?

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