Tuesday, November 15, 2011

What is happening in the 'Euro' land?

I have no idea. I didn't even read the news, I am not going to. I opened my Euro chart and I see the chart below:

Eur/ USD chart on the daily and hourly timeframe. If you zoom the hourly chart, it is still inside the trendline.



Yesterday we had a sell signal before close. /ES is down 1.3% from the close which is roughly ~ 1% from our signal. When I get a VST signal, I am honestly not looking beyond 1%. If I get lucky I will take it. Otherwise, 75% of my position will be out on a 1% move. The signal has a success rate of over 95%, but yes I have had failures like the 2.5% overnight gap up 3 weeks back against my signal. Prudent as it would seem to me with my VST signals as they are signals in the terminal phase of the move, I would take as much profit as I can off the table and make sure we score a win again. Use premarket trading too, that is why we play SPY. Don't stare at the screen when you see the profits. ST signal is still on a buy. Adios!

3 comments:

  1. I read that your signals are based on Emini futures. Thanks for your work. Do you get signals based on cash S&P?

    ReplyDelete
  2. AH, My VST signals are currently based on /ES. Yes. These are very short term, ofcourse they may extend to few days sometimes. But, I have to state the minimum time of the signal because that would be more factual. So, when the signal is very short term, then I have to depend on all tradeable hours which means I take premarket and extended hours into consideration. I know some of you may have different brokers and you can't trade extended hours. But, when you are looking at frequent trades and them being very short term, our strategy is to use all available resources. Unfortunately, I would call it VST system. So, I have to use /ES.

    I can develop the system based on cash SPX but it would not give as many frequent signals as my VST system gives. That would give lesser number of signals which would be longer than VST but shorter than ST. In that case, you are better off following the ST system which is swing trading system and does considerably well.

    The way I am developing my systems are avoiding too much chop, good frequency, high probability success rate and few loss trades. So, I would rather have a high probability system than lowering the probability and increasing the frequency. Because increasing frequency may mean more loss trades. I don't want that. I want me to be comfortable following signals.

    If you are really trading futures, then my VST system would be of great advantage to you because you can take profits at any time of the day.

    Thanks for your post. Feel free to ask questions, as every point that you make will help us. Good luck on your trading!

    ReplyDelete
  3. I have less than 25,000 in my account. I cannot trade more than 3 round trip day trades in less than a week. If I do, I will be branded as a Pattern day trader and my account will be closed by IB.

    ReplyDelete

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