Saturday, December 1, 2012

The big picture

The long term trendline of $NDX from the lows of 2009 is still intact. There was an attempt to break the line on 11/16. The index dipped below the line but closed above it. The momentum is waning with all the indicators posting lower highs. But, if you are a long term investor, you could wait for the trendline break and then a 5% stop below the break, to exit.

Even after the trendline break, there will be attempts to rise above the trendline again. All this may take few months time. Topping is a process as you all know. I see $NDX topping in this short term at 2725 - 2750 but then there will be several attempts to regain the momentum. In other words, we could see a range bound market for the next several weeks.

Either way, long term investors have no reason to get out right now. If the momentum is very strong, we may even rise above the 2012 peak. There is a very small possibility for this to happen, but there is!

My previous big picture call was posted on September 3, before the market peaked few days later. So far as long as the market doesn't rise above it, it remains the top for this market.

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