Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Market update

With widespread panic going on right as Nikkei futures at -6%, All ords taking out 2013 lows, I think it is time for a timely update. On May 21st, this is what I thought. I suspected volatility, but definitely not a 5% correction at the time of the post. But, knowing this pyscho market, I was mentally prepared. The next day, ofcourse, gave us a clear indication and I planned accordingly. Bar few trades for meagre profits, my account has been mostly closing positions in the last 2 weeks. As of now, my account is 100% cash as indicated in the post outlined above. The chart that called "the top", where is it now? I am sure you are super curious. Are we at a bottom? I don't say that till this chart confirms. Unfortunately, it confirms at the end of the day and almost at the end of the after hours. But, based on the close, I initiate positions the next day. I suppose that has been working okay for me. I would say we are almost at a tradable bottom, but I definitely need price confirmation to say that. Based on the trendlines, I have 1616 - 1623 on $SPX as price confirmation on the hourly close. I will initiate market longs above that price. I will not short above an hourly close of 1590 on $SPX. If SPX closes below 1590 on the daily chart, then the intermediate outlook will turn negative as well. There is absolutely no need to undue take risks with this year being so good so far. Ok, now, coming to our chart, I have the indicator on this chart hitting the upper extreme where it had called for a bottom several times in the past 15 years. Beware though, if it decides to go extremes, like in summer of 2011 or 2012, you will be cooked. Hence, you need to have a price confirmation for a reversal. Till then, I would be happy to sit out and enjoy the sun.

Market update

ST - Bearish
IT - Bullish
LT - Bullish

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